Widget Underprices for Third Straight Time
On the heels of yesterday’s discussion about the price widget prediction falling short for the second time, a reader sent us a third data point. Once again, the average appraisal fell far short of the selling price. After being listed for $899,000, 29 Maple Street received an average prediction of $727,425 from readers; the house…
On the heels of yesterday’s discussion about the price widget prediction falling short for the second time, a reader sent us a third data point. Once again, the average appraisal fell far short of the selling price. After being listed for $899,000, 29 Maple Street received an average prediction of $727,425 from readers; the house closed for $830,00 on July 6, 2009. Maybe the fact that the average prediction is, thus far, falling so far of the sales price makes perfect sense. After all, the seller only needs one good buyer, and anyone putting in a bid is probably going to like the house more than the average reader. In this case, it looks like somewhere around 20 to 25 percent of the votes cast were at or above the actual sales price. Maybe we should switch to using the median and noting the three quartile break-points. Could it be that the top quartile is really the predictive number? We’ll wait for a few more data points before overhauling but it’s certainly feeling like that may be the more useful way to parse the data.
House of the Day: 29 Maple Street [Brownstoner]
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I was pulling your leg
11217 the inventory numbers on that website have no credibilty. I dont know why he leaves that up.
Sorry, I didn’t mean Brian Lehrer was discussing the widget but rather the news about national housing market and how it applies to NYC, discussed on this thread. One main point was many think NYC still has further to go down since it didn’t start to go down until very late in the game. Point was also made that sellers who do best price very competitively to stir interest (though this was also about the NY metro area, and not just NYC per se).
brickoven, I’m team bear, but Noah is even-keeled and has always been reasonable and logical in his predictions and comments. Read his blog, going back a year, there’s plenty of comments about sellers overpricing and that this current uptick may not be long term.
July 29 (Bloomberg) — Orders for U.S. durable goods, excluding automobiles and aircraft, unexpectedly rose in June, signaling manufacturing may expand in the second half of the year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awn_Wo4uqoDI
> FYI, Brian Lehrer show is discussing this issue right now.
Thanks for the heads-up. Listening to that now.
I’d rather use his than yours brick. I take everything with a grain of salt, but he does some good in-depth analysis. It’s a lot more than I can say for you.
Your comments here are nothing but nonsense.
11217 Noah from urbandigs is a former daytrader turned real estate broker. You sure you want to use his predictions?
People buying houses in brownstone Brooklyn will probably have a profit on their hands in as little as 3-5 years.
Discuss.
Intelligently. That leaves some of you out of the discussion.