Widget Underprices for Third Straight Time
On the heels of yesterday’s discussion about the price widget prediction falling short for the second time, a reader sent us a third data point. Once again, the average appraisal fell far short of the selling price. After being listed for $899,000, 29 Maple Street received an average prediction of $727,425 from readers; the house…
On the heels of yesterday’s discussion about the price widget prediction falling short for the second time, a reader sent us a third data point. Once again, the average appraisal fell far short of the selling price. After being listed for $899,000, 29 Maple Street received an average prediction of $727,425 from readers; the house closed for $830,00 on July 6, 2009. Maybe the fact that the average prediction is, thus far, falling so far of the sales price makes perfect sense. After all, the seller only needs one good buyer, and anyone putting in a bid is probably going to like the house more than the average reader. In this case, it looks like somewhere around 20 to 25 percent of the votes cast were at or above the actual sales price. Maybe we should switch to using the median and noting the three quartile break-points. Could it be that the top quartile is really the predictive number? We’ll wait for a few more data points before overhauling but it’s certainly feeling like that may be the more useful way to parse the data.
House of the Day: 29 Maple Street [Brownstoner]
29 Maple Street [Brown Harris Stevens] GMAP P*Shark
Bearish Brownstoners Miss Mark on 2nd Street Sale [Brownstoner]
Brian Lehrer is discussing the widget? Has he made any comment about the What?
FYI, Brian Lehrer show is discussing this issue right now. One interesting point re: the NYT article is that the index does not include apartments which skews it quite a bit. Also, the point was made that all real estate is local so what happens nationally does impact NYC (since we are subject to national forces i.e. bad economy) but each market may have a different timing i.e. peak nationally was 2006 whereas here it was 2008…
Re-doing the widget may help. Problem is anyone can post a crazy high or low number without having information on relative values. Buyers looks a dozens of properties and make a calculation part personal and part business. Most of us putting in numbers here have no daily idea of market and are guessing. It appears many of us throw in low low numbers for real estate political reasons.
“hings are very bad, but they’re no where near as bad as they might have become. We’re very lucky to have dodged the bullet this time.”
Yeah but there are Ticking Nuclear Warheads all around you just be quiet you can hear them..
The What (Tick.. Tick.. Tick..)
Someday this war is gonna end..
> I don’t consider the outlying “some skeptics” to be where the bulk of the
> information is gravitating right now.
And before the economy crashed, did you consider the voices of the skeptics who said the economy was heading for a crash?
barely skimmed the posts, so maybe this is covered already:
Inputs to the widget reflect what people want the price to be, not what they think the market value is. Full stop. Nothing else to debate here.
I basically ignore the widget and think I may have put something into it once.
Those poor “bitter renters” and “suicidal buyers”. Two sides of the same coin.
“Bob Marvin I’m not hating on you! I believe you are old enough to understand where I’m coming from! When you brought that house the Bank did a full rectum cavity search ti make sure you had the ability to pay that money back!”
Damn straight they did AND they required 40% down. In addition, I could only find one bank that would even give me an application form and bother to access my ability to pay the loan.
I believe that the What HAS correctly accessed the root of our current economic situation and that things MIGHT have worked out as badly as he predicted. Fortunately, things seem to have gone somewhat better, so I wouldn’t expect the fall of the world monetary system just yet. Things are very bad, but they’re no where near as bad as they might have become. We’re very lucky to have dodged the bullet this time.
That is true, Snark.
But I don’t consider the outlying “some skeptics” to be where the bulk of the information is gravitating right now.
It’s like saying Sarah Palin is the voice of the Republican Party. No. She is the voice of a small portion of the minority party.
No one knows. But the fact that 8 cities (and some of the most populated ones) have stopped dropping means to me that things are starting to improve. There may still be bumps down the road, but in terms of the housing recovery, the worst MAY be over. Housing busts don’t last forever.