Widget Underprices for Third Straight Time
On the heels of yesterday’s discussion about the price widget prediction falling short for the second time, a reader sent us a third data point. Once again, the average appraisal fell far short of the selling price. After being listed for $899,000, 29 Maple Street received an average prediction of $727,425 from readers; the house…
On the heels of yesterday’s discussion about the price widget prediction falling short for the second time, a reader sent us a third data point. Once again, the average appraisal fell far short of the selling price. After being listed for $899,000, 29 Maple Street received an average prediction of $727,425 from readers; the house closed for $830,00 on July 6, 2009. Maybe the fact that the average prediction is, thus far, falling so far of the sales price makes perfect sense. After all, the seller only needs one good buyer, and anyone putting in a bid is probably going to like the house more than the average reader. In this case, it looks like somewhere around 20 to 25 percent of the votes cast were at or above the actual sales price. Maybe we should switch to using the median and noting the three quartile break-points. Could it be that the top quartile is really the predictive number? We’ll wait for a few more data points before overhauling but it’s certainly feeling like that may be the more useful way to parse the data.
House of the Day: 29 Maple Street [Brownstoner]
29 Maple Street [Brown Harris Stevens] GMAP P*Shark
Bearish Brownstoners Miss Mark on 2nd Street Sale [Brownstoner]
11217 – moving is not that big a deal. You hire movers, and they do most of it for you. And it’s not that expensive compared with the savings to be had right now with falling prices. I did it with kids – trust me, it’s very doable.
“I’ll be glad when I’ve paid off my mortgage and will be living rent free in my later years.”
Not rent free, DIBS, unless you recover downpayment and net expenses divided by total months of ownership, all in 2007 dollars or whenever you bought it.
“Moving in NYC is one of the absolute WORST experiences in the world.”
Hence bitter, 11217 and wasder.
“But when Bob Marvin is accused of making a purchase that was ‘stupid in 1974’…”
Dudes, where did I say this? Not saying it’s false as I’d have to run numbers but I don’t care to do so.
“there in lies the weakness in BHO’s entire presentation/ideology–the defensiveness with which he approaches any piece of data that does not march in lockstep with his self-aggrandizing vision”
Such data is always paired with an absurd notion of a bottom and recovery. It’s that notion that I get defensive with, not the data. A reversal in trend has to be sustainable over many months before we can talk recovery. That’s why I focus on year-over-year market behavior.
***Bid half off peak comps***
lechacal, I would agree that a profit will be difficult in less than three years. That’s too short term to predict anything like this.
“People buying houses in brownstone Brooklyn will probably have a profit on their hands in as little as 3-5 years. Discuss.”
People buying at current prices (ie 20% or so off peak)? Sure, possible, depending on whether interest rates spike (if they do I say no way, so this is basically a bet that interest rates will stay where they are). But your prediction is terribly fuzzy. The only hard prediction in “in as little as 3-5 years” is that they won’t turn a profit in less than 3 years. Would you be willing to delete “as little as?”
slope–there in lies the weakness in BHO’s entire presentation/ideology–the defensiveness with which he approaches any piece of data that does not march in lockstep with his self-aggrandizing vision.
What Bob Marvin said at 10:19.
BHO,
I use the term “bitter renter” facetiously. But when Bob Marvin is accused of making a purchase that was “stupid in 1974” despite returns that obviously outpaced any measure of cost of living, and when every purchaser above the widget price is “stupid”, it seems as if you, what, corner et al cannot ever imagine that buying a house could ever be an acceptable choice. Whether you own or rent, you are certainly clinging bitterly to your position, so much so that you are threatened by data that does not even undermine it but might be misconstrued by others to do so.
“We’re only bitter because we’ll have to move again when we can up our square footage and location for the same price next year.”
Why would this make you bitter? Sounds like a good deal to me.
Got to come to slopefarm’s defense on the herd mentality thing. If there is anybody who is NOT of the herd mentality it is slopefarm, who is one of the most nuanced thinkers on this site and not prone to falling in with any crowd. Never heard him say anything disparaging about renters either.
“We’re only bitter because we’ll have to move again when we can up our square footage”
Guess you haven’t learned that bigger is not always better yet.
Moving in NYC is one of the absolute WORST experiences in the world. Not to mention expensive, if you don’t do it yourself.
Oh, and what Dave said at 1:45.