Widget Underprices for Third Straight Time
On the heels of yesterday’s discussion about the price widget prediction falling short for the second time, a reader sent us a third data point. Once again, the average appraisal fell far short of the selling price. After being listed for $899,000, 29 Maple Street received an average prediction of $727,425 from readers; the house…
On the heels of yesterday’s discussion about the price widget prediction falling short for the second time, a reader sent us a third data point. Once again, the average appraisal fell far short of the selling price. After being listed for $899,000, 29 Maple Street received an average prediction of $727,425 from readers; the house closed for $830,00 on July 6, 2009. Maybe the fact that the average prediction is, thus far, falling so far of the sales price makes perfect sense. After all, the seller only needs one good buyer, and anyone putting in a bid is probably going to like the house more than the average reader. In this case, it looks like somewhere around 20 to 25 percent of the votes cast were at or above the actual sales price. Maybe we should switch to using the median and noting the three quartile break-points. Could it be that the top quartile is really the predictive number? We’ll wait for a few more data points before overhauling but it’s certainly feeling like that may be the more useful way to parse the data.
House of the Day: 29 Maple Street [Brownstoner]
29 Maple Street [Brown Harris Stevens] GMAP P*Shark
Bearish Brownstoners Miss Mark on 2nd Street Sale [Brownstoner]
I’ll be glad when I’ve paid off my mortgage and will be living rent free in my later years. I suffer from a delusional herd mentality.
Re: Herd mentality.
11217: Because you fall for the false glimmers of hope in hyped up, short term, unsustainable month-to-month pluses in Case-Shiller.
sloperfarm: Because you think renters are now bitter, overused and untimely sheepfeed. We’re only bitter because we’ll have to move again when we can up our square footage and location for the same price next year.
***Bid half off peak comps***
“Brian Lehrer is discussing the widget? Has he made any comment about the What?”
ROFL, dh!
I agree that the widget is not very meaningful, just a mildly amusing game.
Slopefarm is right that the widget accuracy has nothing to do with home values. IMO, it’s off because there’s nothing to stop people from assigning frivolous values. In a VERY large sample that might not matter, but the Brownstoner universe is far too small for the widget to be good for anything other than entertainment.
dittoburg
I use to like that website, however the inventory numbers have no credibity and he leaves it up. Its been that way for way too long, kind of stupid
Wait a minute! This began as a discussion of whether the widget is off or commenters are too pessimistic on current home values, and now we’re into freemasonry and I’m being accused of bull market herd mentality? My original point stands — the widget accuracy debate does not implicate the bull-bear debate and there is no need to get worked up about it, no matter how emotionally invested in your bear or bull positions you might be. Anyone want to break free from that herd?
So far it’s 7, cornerbodega.
I don’t care about the widget at all.
It’s a game.
People like 11217 getting all excited over3 widgets on a blog vs the actual #s? Schiller, rebny, even prudential elliman (-28% manhattan avg 2q yoy)…