Widget Underprices for Third Straight Time
On the heels of yesterday’s discussion about the price widget prediction falling short for the second time, a reader sent us a third data point. Once again, the average appraisal fell far short of the selling price. After being listed for $899,000, 29 Maple Street received an average prediction of $727,425 from readers; the house…
On the heels of yesterday’s discussion about the price widget prediction falling short for the second time, a reader sent us a third data point. Once again, the average appraisal fell far short of the selling price. After being listed for $899,000, 29 Maple Street received an average prediction of $727,425 from readers; the house closed for $830,00 on July 6, 2009. Maybe the fact that the average prediction is, thus far, falling so far of the sales price makes perfect sense. After all, the seller only needs one good buyer, and anyone putting in a bid is probably going to like the house more than the average reader. In this case, it looks like somewhere around 20 to 25 percent of the votes cast were at or above the actual sales price. Maybe we should switch to using the median and noting the three quartile break-points. Could it be that the top quartile is really the predictive number? We’ll wait for a few more data points before overhauling but it’s certainly feeling like that may be the more useful way to parse the data.
House of the Day: 29 Maple Street [Brownstoner]
29 Maple Street [Brown Harris Stevens] GMAP P*Shark
Bearish Brownstoners Miss Mark on 2nd Street Sale [Brownstoner]
“So Bob, is your house worth more than 4.3 times what you paid for it?”
Somewhat more, actually, I bought from a seller who was too cheap to use a broker and was afraid to come from Long Island to that “dangerous” Brooklyn neighborhood He priced his old aunt’s house at about half the going rate {so he’d only have to risk his life by showing it once?], so more like 8.6 times.
Not that it really matters–I’m planning on leaving my house to my son who, very likely, will want to live in it. The way house prices are going that’s probably the only way he’ll ever get a house and no, I don’t think that’s a good thing, just the sorry reality.
” It’s the ultimate “bitter renter” position.”
Thanks.. This is all I need.
The What (MUTE!)
Someday this war is gonna end…
I think they’re just bitter in general, slopefarm.
Love your comments lately.
NYTIMES –
“Some skeptics say they believe the market is merely pausing before it resumes falling and that much of the life in the market is coming from speculators. Even the most enthusiastic analysts acknowledge that rising unemployment, another leap in foreclosures or a significant jump in interest rates could snuff out progress.”
“I understand inflation. My house has gone up about forty-fold in nominal dollar figures, but less than ten-fold when adjusted for inflation. So what? I’m very happy :-)”
Bob Marvin I’m not hating on you! I believe you are old enough to understand where I’m coming from! When you brought that house the Bank did a full rectum cavity search ti make sure you had the ability to pay that money back! Today with securitization they handed out loans to Jackasses that 1. could not afford the house, 2. had no intention on paying back the money. All of sudden everyone is Donald Trump and now the bill comes due. This is what the retards don’t seem to grasp that we are in the first stages of a DEPRESSION and it will take many years to get out of this mess…
The What
Someday this war is gonna end…
INFLATION WHAT’S IT WORTH NOW BOB?????
http://research.stlouisfed.org//fred2/data/CPIAUCSL.txt
CPI = 49 in 1974, 212 today, according to BLS.
So Bob, is your house worth more than 4.3 times what you paid for it?
I think the logical conclusion of the what/bho/corner position is that all buyers are stupid at all times. It’s the ultimate “bitter renter” position.
“Corner, what and BHO, you can take a chill pill on the widget question as your position is not threatened. ”
Slopefarm you’re a real Jackass! Take that “fare and balanced” crap somewhere else! Everyone and their mother knows where the market is headed—>DOWN!
“he question of the widget’s accuracy as a price predictor has no bearing on the direction of the market in the future. ”
No it reflects the Greed and Delusion mentality not the “direction” of Asset prices!
One question– Did you think interest rates will be 5% in ten years?????? Do you thing China and Japan will continue to fund America’s profligate spending lifestyle?! Do you think Peak Energy will have an impact on future Asset prices? That your homework assignment!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end…
What,
I understand inflation. My house has gone up about forty-fold in nominal dollar figures, but less than ten-fold when adjusted for inflation. So what? I’m very happy 🙂
The guy over at urbandigs does a good job with his blog, I think. Very insightful commentary. He did a piece the other day on where he sees the final discount from the housing crash. Thing is…and it’s something we don’t talk about over here on brownstoner…the discount from peak has more to do with the price of the property more than it does the location of the property. According to him, anyway…in which case…most Brooklyn properties will see overall drops of between 15-30% (most of which seems to already have occurred).
***I’ll repeat the ranges based on price point that I currently use, now that Armageddon has seemed to be priced out of our market:
HIGH END ($5M+) – down aprox 25% – 40% from peak
HIGH/MIDDLE ($2M – $5M) – down aprox 25% – 30% from peak
MID END ($1M – $2M) – down aprox 20% to 30% from peak
LOWER END (Under $1M) – down aprox 15% – 25% from peak
While in the fear months, trades were occurring closer to the higher end of the above noted ranges, today it seems trades are occurring closer to the lower/middle end of these ranges. The markets way of pricing out fear.