Where and When Will The Market Bottom?
Most people interviewed in this weekend Times article about New York’s real estate market finding its bottom seem to agree that prices so far have come down about 25 percent; how much further they have to fall is a matter of more varied opinion, though it sounds like 10 or 15 percent would be a…
Most people interviewed in this weekend Times article about New York’s real estate market finding its bottom seem to agree that prices so far have come down about 25 percent; how much further they have to fall is a matter of more varied opinion, though it sounds like 10 or 15 percent would be a consensus range. Which means we could be closer to the bottom than past cycles would suggest. Even if the New York market were to end up being 35 to 45 percent down, he said, to the degree we’re seeing deals done at 30 to 32 percent down anyway, it’s not very far away. What may happen, some speculate, is that the correction, however brutal, could be accelerated into a shorter time period that last go-round. It’s possible that rather than seeing price declines spread out over a six-year period, this time it could be concentrated in a two-year period, said Ingrid Gould Ellen, co-director of the Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy at NYU’s School of Law. That possibility, along with the fact that there are plenty of folks waiting in the wings wanting to buy, has the brokerage community cautiously optimistic that the real estate business may avoid having a lost decade. After all, what broker’s need to get paid are transactions more than high prices.
Looking for Bottom in N.Y. Real Estate [NY Times]
Photo by simplerich
I’ll let that back and forth speak for itself and hope other people take notice. Although again, you “two” are not the only ones with multiple login names.
Have fun with it, What. Like “Lodi’s Finest”. It’ll be less frustrating than trying to convince wasder otherwise. He’s hopeless. He’s the only one on here consistently trying to link us as one. Jebby’s suspicion will soon subside. She just needs an outlet right now.
***Bid half off peak comps***
What—your wife may not appreciate the duct tape reference.
Jebby–do stick around. This is my web home as well and I try to look after those folks who tend towards the Team Reasonable view of the world.
“Last time we had this discussion it was your wife’s idea not to buy.”
That can change at the drop of a hat. That’s why I said “might”.
***Bid half off peak comps***
“I might overpay sooner because I have a wife to compromise with.”
BHO you might have to break out the duck tape for wifey. I know she wants more kids but don’t go into the poorhouse…
“”BHO is the Medicated and Educated version of “The What”….”
Thanks What. I appreciate the acknowledgement.’
Wasder put the Jack Daniels and Oxycontin down! BHO and I are two different people Dumbass!
The Wasder
Someday this war is gonna end..
I don’t know about anyone else, but I’ve come to skip every single post by BHO and the What.
Too long, too many cut and pasted items. It’s not friendly to the eye.
Nor much else.
Wasder, As my grandmother used to say, “don’t go looking for oranges in a hardware store”. Still got that 60’s change the world thing in my blood. Should know at my age that I’m not going to change anyone. Thanks for the web view. This is the only place I have posted as I love Brooklyn and real estate, but it is what it is. Cheers
“I might overpay sooner because I have a wife to compromise with.”
Last time we had this discussion it was your wife’s idea not to buy. Your world sure is topsy turvy.
“Here’s a question to those of you “waiting to buy until the prices fall 50%+”
,
What happens if the prices don’t ever fall 50,60, or 70%?
Are those of you waiting for those price drops just never going to buy?
And if you truly want to buy and are willing to adjust your metric, at what point is that? If they drop 30% but then start climbing again are you willing to buy 25% off becuase you waited to long for 30%?
Or are you going to not buy just because it didn’t hit 50% off?
And what if it does it 50%? Will you really buy or will you decide to wait until 60%?”
Posted by: christopher at March 9, 2009 2:35 PM
I will be ready to sign a contract no later than the next time the monthly NY Case-Shiller Home Price Index records zero change from the previous year (regardless of half off or not). Very simple. You can’t time the market to a ‘T’ in advance but you can call the bottom when you see it. The data goes back to the late 80’s. Test my theory for yourself.
I might overpay sooner because I have a wife to compromise with. But investment properties will be had after the above criteria is met. Or I may optimize my purchase sooner if my bid of half off peak comps gets accepted.
***Bid half off peak comps***