Where and When Will The Market Bottom?
Most people interviewed in this weekend Times article about New York’s real estate market finding its bottom seem to agree that prices so far have come down about 25 percent; how much further they have to fall is a matter of more varied opinion, though it sounds like 10 or 15 percent would be a…
Most people interviewed in this weekend Times article about New York’s real estate market finding its bottom seem to agree that prices so far have come down about 25 percent; how much further they have to fall is a matter of more varied opinion, though it sounds like 10 or 15 percent would be a consensus range. Which means we could be closer to the bottom than past cycles would suggest. Even if the New York market were to end up being 35 to 45 percent down, he said, to the degree we’re seeing deals done at 30 to 32 percent down anyway, it’s not very far away. What may happen, some speculate, is that the correction, however brutal, could be accelerated into a shorter time period that last go-round. It’s possible that rather than seeing price declines spread out over a six-year period, this time it could be concentrated in a two-year period, said Ingrid Gould Ellen, co-director of the Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy at NYU’s School of Law. That possibility, along with the fact that there are plenty of folks waiting in the wings wanting to buy, has the brokerage community cautiously optimistic that the real estate business may avoid having a lost decade. After all, what broker’s need to get paid are transactions more than high prices.
Looking for Bottom in N.Y. Real Estate [NY Times]
Photo by simplerich
“BHO is the Medicated and Educated version of “The What”….”
Thanks What. I appreciate the acknowledgement.
Jebby–I hear you about investing in the community where you buy. Similarly I employed a bunch of different tradespeople on my house (facade etc) and felt good about contributing my little part to a larger society. The only thing I will add is that the internet is a really tough place to be a sincere individual. You will get shit for it, no doubt, as many people will not want to hear that you bought your house in part as a means of investing in the greater good. Certainly I believe you but I would feel remiss if I did not warn you of how negatively some people will look on that notion, for reasons that I can’t really articulate. I hope you persist in this attitude about life because I am with you, but just be thick skinned as the arrows fly.
“Wasder, Thanks for your thoughtful post.”
Translation: “Wasder, Thanks for the hand job.”
sold my Cobble Hill house, rented for a year and have now bought. I actually bought as a way to support Brooklyn,Obama and America in my small way.
Translation: I’m just as delusional as everyone else…
“To say nothing of the tens of thousands of dollars in taxes the city and state got in the transaction.”
ROTFLMMFAO!!!! Yo stop hogging the joint!
“I’m really impressed with your research as I thought they were the same in my sub-conscious”
Translation: Wasder thanks for shoving that gerbil up my ass, I feel better now…
The What (Damn look at the “Taste the rainbow” line)
Someday this war is gonna end…
“What, love you babe, I really do. But either he is a parasite sucking off your persona (which should piss you off but doesn’t seem to) or a variation for you to be able to speak with somewhat more grammatical appropriateness.”
BHO is the Medicated and Educated version of “The What”….
The What (Iz gotz me teeeth to eatz my skilttles…)
Someday this war is gonna end…
Wasder, Thanks for your thoughtful post. I was not discouraged because I was worried that I had just bought a house. I sold my Cobble Hill house, rented for a year and have now bought. I actually bought as a way to support Brooklyn,Obama and America in my small way. And as an example of how these kind of moves help the economy, on Sunday I had a wonderful stone man looking to redo my facade and two of my new neighbors have now hired him to do theirs. He’s got a year’s worth of work and my block has new investment in it. To say nothing of the tens of thousands of dollars in taxes the city and state got in the transaction. If you care about where you live you should want this to be happening. I was discouraged at the stupidity and ugliness of people in the thread. I’m really impressed with your research as I thought they were the same in my sub-conscious.
No one has ever been more consistently civil on here than NOP. By claiming his post was anecdotal, you disparaged it. Remember, that even if prices are only going down for “psychological” reasons –even if the bust is collective hysteria –it does not make you smart to buy a house for $3 million that’ll sell for $2.5 in nine months; and for who knows what in five years. You have to get a feel for whether air is entering or exiting the balloon; you have to have lived in this city since before ’92, or even ’82, to know what its cycles can wreak. In that way, a sense of historical perspective is every bit as helpful as “data,” which is only a window into what has already happened –and anyone can tell you that.
Mr. NOP:
With all due respect, do you REALLY believe that these apartments you speak of in Manhattan (Sting, Astor, 15 CPW, etc) are significant in terms of the broader market when we’re talking about a 40 million dollar house now being re-isted for 35?
You don’t think that perhaps they picked a number out of the sky, didn’t get it and then reduced it?
Or do you REALLY believe that apartments at that end of the market actual are based in situations you can graph like the rest of the housing market?
What about the 15 CPW apartment which was bought for $20 million last year and relisted for $80 million a year later?
It now stands at around $40 million after a price chop.
Does that mean the Upper West Side market is down 50%???
The reason they leave out sales at some of these stupidly expensive places is because they defy reason. Using them as an example for the broader doesn’t really make much sense to me.
“Wasder give it a rest!!!!”
What, love you babe, I really do. But either he is a parasite sucking off your persona (which should piss you off but doesn’t seem to) or a variation for you to be able to speak with somewhat more grammatical appropriateness.
yeah you two(Wasder/Jebby) – read my little antecdote about my mom above.
Jebby–this has been a long research project for me that comes and goes with how much I care day to day. In this particular case “they” were a little sloppier than normal in pretending to be different entities.
But really, the point is you made a choice, as did I, to buy a house in an uncertain financial climate. I am assuming you did so with a similar level of soul searching and consideration of the larger picture (both financial and lifestyle). If so, nobody can tell you that you made a bad choice because you made the choice that made sense for you. All of this macro-financial bickering is valid of course but never takes into consideration the individual circumstances of the buyer. So chin up and try to let the peanut gallery slide. best of luck to you and congrats again.