Where and When Will The Market Bottom?
Most people interviewed in this weekend Times article about New York’s real estate market finding its bottom seem to agree that prices so far have come down about 25 percent; how much further they have to fall is a matter of more varied opinion, though it sounds like 10 or 15 percent would be a…
Most people interviewed in this weekend Times article about New York’s real estate market finding its bottom seem to agree that prices so far have come down about 25 percent; how much further they have to fall is a matter of more varied opinion, though it sounds like 10 or 15 percent would be a consensus range. Which means we could be closer to the bottom than past cycles would suggest. Even if the New York market were to end up being 35 to 45 percent down, he said, to the degree we’re seeing deals done at 30 to 32 percent down anyway, it’s not very far away. What may happen, some speculate, is that the correction, however brutal, could be accelerated into a shorter time period that last go-round. It’s possible that rather than seeing price declines spread out over a six-year period, this time it could be concentrated in a two-year period, said Ingrid Gould Ellen, co-director of the Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy at NYU’s School of Law. That possibility, along with the fact that there are plenty of folks waiting in the wings wanting to buy, has the brokerage community cautiously optimistic that the real estate business may avoid having a lost decade. After all, what broker’s need to get paid are transactions more than high prices.
Looking for Bottom in N.Y. Real Estate [NY Times]
Photo by simplerich
“that’s not my point. How do you know that houses aren’t going to go back to 1980 levels?”
You better pray that never happens. The Assheads will be Goose Stepping in the streets..
Chicken knock it off there will be a crash not annihilation….
The What
Someday this war is gonna end…
Maintenance charges coming down, hannible??? ROTFLMMFAO
that’s not my point. How do you know that houses aren’t going to go back to 1980 levels?
“12 year low for the stock market should not automatically equate to 12 year low for house prices. For one thing, one is looking at the equity component while the other is looking at enterprise values.”
The “Make believe” price gains of the last 12 years are getting vaporized! It’s happing right in front of your face. End of story…
The What
Someday this war is gonna end…
550,000 dollar “Luxury Condos” will now have to go for no more more than 160-170,000 dollars. Maintance costs will have to go down to 20 or 30 dollars no more thousands of dollars to walk your dog nonsense. Rents are going to have to come down to affordable levels for working families. Considering the President is talking about a 31 gross income, then if a worker is making 30,000 dollars he should be paying no more than 800.00 dollars for a decent appartment. And I do mean decent no more 10 to an apartment. But to get to all of this we need to see many of the old real estate brokers who pumped up the market in the first place go out of business. They are feeling mighty stupid now. You still go into some real estate brokers and they still have the gaul to say real estate prices are not coming down. Okay! Just turn around and walk out
This article was all about condos and co-ops in Manhattan.
Obviously the brownstone townhouse market is linked in many ways to the Manhattan apartment market, but it’s more complicated than just, “If a Park Avenue co-op falls 25%, so will a brownstone in Park Slope.”
What,
12 year low for the stock market should not automatically equate to 12 year low for house prices. For one thing, one is looking at the equity component while the other is looking at enterprise values.
Before you come back with your hallmark insults, remember that I am on Team Bear and a card-carrying member of the rational thought brigade. Just pointing out the error in your argument.
I was thinking of getting a wood-framed summer home in Greenwood.
Given that the prices have been supported by the same FIRE bubble, will we see the price of that theoretical Greenwich ranch house plummet as well?