WIDGET UPDATE: Since the pricing widget has now been up and running for exactly six months, we spent a little time yesterday looking at some data to try to see if it has any predictive ability. We came up with a list of twelve properties that had been both subjected to the widget treatment and…
WIDGET UPDATE: Since the pricing widget has now been up and running for exactly six months, we spent a little time yesterday looking at some data to try to see if it has any predictive ability. We came up with a list of twelve properties that had been both subjected to the widget treatment and gone on to sell. The findings were quite interesting: In every single case, the average predicted selling price fell short of the actual selling price. The interesting thing was the consistent range by which the widget underpriced. The widget price was between 9.4% and 19.8% under the ultimate selling price; on average the widget underpriced by about 14%. So we’re going to create a second-generation widget that shows average and median predictions as well as a predicted selling price based on the historical track record. Hopefully that’ll get done in the next couple of weeks. The twelve data points are listed below. P.S. If any reader would like to become the official keeper of the widget spreadsheet and try to keep an eye on this stuff, we’d be more than happy to hand it off!
Interesting that BHO and whuh show up on the same day after not posting for weeks. More intersting is that as chummy as BHO and what were on this site, BHO apparently never wandered over to post on what’s blog. Hmmm.
Meanwhile, when will anyone learn that the widget and case schiller have nothing to do with each other? The widget is about how well the collective wisdom of this site can pinpoint the value of a single home at a single point in time. Case schiller is about the direction of the market.
Whatever the reason for the widget underpricing, the fact that homes are worth more than the collective wisdom of this site’s readers think they were does not mean that the housing market is getting stronger. BHO, methinks you doth protest too much. You can relax on this widget deal.
A question for those of you who guess on teh widget, are you saying what you would pay, or what you think the house will go for. If the latter, than the widget guesses aer intended to be an approximation of what the high bidder will bid, so there ought not be a bias toward the average, rather than top, bidder.
there you are BHO. no government agency is going bankrupt. but I agree that using words like “second derivative” is wrong on so many levels. 1. It’s an obvious attempt to inflate a weak argurment, 2. it’s not even the right word in mathematical terms (derivatives deal with contuinuous functions, not collections of data), 3. even if you forgive the mis-use, on a statistical level it’s so close to noise that it’s wildly agressive to call an upturn, 4. the same guy who did it rejected the same data for years, 5. there are so many non-market influences affecting prices that even case and shiller don’t get behind these numbers, 6. we have a a local economy that’s even more derailed from the rest of the country than it ever was.
“I’m touched, wasder. Likewise to you.”
I hope you are serious cause I am. Its more interesting here with you around. Why this thread for your re-entry?
FWIW, you need to account for ‘properties rated with the widget but have not sold yet’.
Otherwise what you are doing is figuring out the batting average based on “balls put in play” and ignoring the strikeouts.
Now, if you have very few no sales, then the analysis of the data will be fairly accurate even if you ignore these. But if you have a large number of no sales, then ignoring them makes the analysis suspect.
BHO,
You just put a vision in my head of Screetch singing WHAM! and its not very pleaseant.
I’m touched, wasder. Likewise to you.
***Bid half off peak comps***
folks if you use my 11:48 AM suggestion, you neutralize all of the consistent dream-pricers, or opinion-swayers, or anti-condo-nazis, or whatever. as long as widget users keep behaving approximately the same way, the “percentile method” will be a good predictor.
DIBS – The false glimmer needs that snapshot eff double prime to sink, line and hook that idiot. His/her lack of perifial vision cannot fathom what heads for the broadside (commercial RE collapse thus more bank failures, November deadline for laughable $8K credit, FHA going bankrupt, 15% plus unemployment, etc etc etc). SCREEEEEETCH…WHAM!
***Bid half off peak comps***
BHO–I didn’t say we were in koolaid mode, just that there was less bickering and fighting. But seriously, you are a valued member of this community because for better or for worse we need some downer-types as much as we need optimists and yes reasonable people. Balance as they say…