WIDGET UPDATE: Since the pricing widget has now been up and running for exactly six months, we spent a little time yesterday looking at some data to try to see if it has any predictive ability. We came up with a list of twelve properties that had been both subjected to the widget treatment and…
WIDGET UPDATE: Since the pricing widget has now been up and running for exactly six months, we spent a little time yesterday looking at some data to try to see if it has any predictive ability. We came up with a list of twelve properties that had been both subjected to the widget treatment and gone on to sell. The findings were quite interesting: In every single case, the average predicted selling price fell short of the actual selling price. The interesting thing was the consistent range by which the widget underpriced. The widget price was between 9.4% and 19.8% under the ultimate selling price; on average the widget underpriced by about 14%. So we’re going to create a second-generation widget that shows average and median predictions as well as a predicted selling price based on the historical track record. Hopefully that’ll get done in the next couple of weeks. The twelve data points are listed below. P.S. If any reader would like to become the official keeper of the widget spreadsheet and try to keep an eye on this stuff, we’d be more than happy to hand it off!
Chicken, we’ve also got that in the spreadsheet. Agree that it’s useful to try to measure impact of pricing on psychology…
Will be interesting to see if predictions improve over time. All of these were in April, which was 1 month after the low point in the stock market. Sentiment was pretty horrible then and may gradually improve. Widget results may be more volatile based on sentiment vs. actual real estate prices.
Antidope, we’ve got that column in the spreadsheet just didn’t want to cram too much in here for visibility’s sake. That’s also the important number because it’s what we’ll have to multiply the widget average by to get the proprietary Brownstoner predicted price!
There should be an extra column for asking price at time of posting. This will yield a couple of extra ratios that would be interesting:
– average widget deviation from asking
– average discount to asking
What I have noticed of late for the areas that I track is that asking prices have stopped moving down (even for places that have been on the market for a long time) as sellers seem to be assuming that buyers are going to submitting bids at a discount anyway.
It’s too much pressure, wasder! 🙂
And since I am not a paying member at those real estate sites (Property Shark, etc) I’m not sure I’m the best candidate since I can’t always see sale prices, but I’m more than happy to post about properties I see which have entered contract…
Stoner- i have been keeping score and have all the same data on the hotd side, not the cotd.
I haven’t seen brickoven, BHO or cornerbodega on here in quite awhile.
QED
Brickoven, are you crying in your milk? The rest of his posse will soon decry the “idiots, bloody idiots.”
Stoner, small quibble, i think you should consider flipping the denominator and get “% over widget” (not % under sale). that way readers will be able to see the widget price and extrapolate.
Oh and 113 Garfield Place (also on your list) entered contract on 09/09/09.