WIDGET UPDATE: Since the pricing widget has now been up and running for exactly six months, we spent a little time yesterday looking at some data to try to see if it has any predictive ability. We came up with a list of twelve properties that had been both subjected to the widget treatment and…
WIDGET UPDATE: Since the pricing widget has now been up and running for exactly six months, we spent a little time yesterday looking at some data to try to see if it has any predictive ability. We came up with a list of twelve properties that had been both subjected to the widget treatment and gone on to sell. The findings were quite interesting: In every single case, the average predicted selling price fell short of the actual selling price. The interesting thing was the consistent range by which the widget underpriced. The widget price was between 9.4% and 19.8% under the ultimate selling price; on average the widget underpriced by about 14%. So we’re going to create a second-generation widget that shows average and median predictions as well as a predicted selling price based on the historical track record. Hopefully that’ll get done in the next couple of weeks. The twelve data points are listed below. P.S. If any reader would like to become the official keeper of the widget spreadsheet and try to keep an eye on this stuff, we’d be more than happy to hand it off!
Here’s the thing though, Muffy…
The properties which are priced properly are selling within weeks, and for close to asking price.
From your comments, you sound SO incredibly particular and typically have a host of problems with any given house of the day. So while you might be hoping for that big discount, the problem is that the houses which are being discounted are the ones which are crappy.
The market is not at a point at all where really nice properties are just sitting there being discounted left and right.
Those are being snatched up.
“all you’re really saying (now) is that we need a 12 month plateau to feel comfortable the bottom won’t fall out again.”
‘hell you get 12 months from? The market takes how ever long it wants to take. Been saying CS YOY to zero the whole time (and before your time on here).
“not exactly guru-level forecasting.”
Yet you struggled to understand what was so simple.
“but i agree it is a relatively safe way to enter the home ownership arena…”
Duh. Buy low.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Keep talkin’ your book, Muffie.
The thing about data is that it can be spun and cherry picked in lots of different ways. So Benson, your one condo is not a large enough sample. I don’t have time to write a long post here but will just say that, enough properties we’ve watched have sold for a big enough discount that we’re confident we’ll get a decent discount on whatever we buy. We’re not necessarily waiting for a huge drop of 50% like some are but still would not rule this out. There are still a lot of shoes that could drop and a lot of uncertainty. But for us, even a discount of 20-25% would be meaningful. Unfortunately, many sellers are still finding this hard to accept so their places linger or suffer price chops.
“That s why so few things are actually selling–most people are waiting.”
Shill, please tell us more of your nonsense!
**
Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Rose 6.4% in August
Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) — The number of contracts to buy previously owned homes in the U.S. increased more than forecast in August, reinforcing signs of a rebound in housing, industry figures showed today.
The index of signed purchase agreements, or pending home sales, rose 6.4 percent after a 3.2 percent gain in July, the National Association of Realtors announced in Washington. The gain was the seventh in a row. Compared with a year earlier, pending sales rose 12.4 percent.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601206&sid=aFH0zI40heAc
“Antidope is right, stoner. Your definition would make every sale an overpay in every market except where there were multiple legitimate bidders at the same exact price. It would also make every ebay transaction an overpay. market is price whereever willing buyers meet willing sellers.”
So no one ever over-pays? What ever price someone is willing to pay is the market value, even if no other would-be buyers would be willing to pay it? Even if the buyer couldn’t turn around and sell it for the same price? I think not.
Joe the Bummer,
That’s also a good idea. Probably better than the multiplier actually….
the widget–what a scam!
we don’t like what it comes up so let’s “correct” it
reality starts to bend–the house of the day the other day was not even a house
Folks;
I’ve generally stayed out these pricing discussions recently because – being an engineer – I believe in real data, and couldn’t take how certain people would spin non-consequential data, such as cuts in asking price. Yesterday I entered a post however, of some real sales data. Since I see that some of the biggest “spinners” are back, allow me to reprint my post, as such:
______
Pete and all;
I know that you’ve been asking for some time that we compile some real data on the trend for condo sales. Well, I’ve been doing just that, and I hereby present it. I want to see how Muffie tries to spin this data!
The condo in question is the one I live in: City View Gardens. It is a five-building condo complex, with three buildings on 2nd Street between 4th and 5th Ave, and two buildings on 3rd street between 4th and 5th Ave. All of these buildings are closer to 4th Ave. This condo complex was built in 2003-2004. While this condo is in Park Slope proper, it would not be considered “prime” Park Slope by some.
My condo complex is a very good market indicator for the following reason: 30 of these units consist of identical 3 BR, 2 BA apartments of 1350 to 1400 square feet. These apartments were initially offered for about $630,000 by the sponsor (the infamous Boymelgreen), and then he later upped the offering price to $680,000 due to the hot market at the time.
All of the data I am about to list below is a matter of public record, if anyone wants to do some fact-checking:
-September, 2005 (the first flip): apartment 4B in 306 2nd street sells for $911,000.
-Fall, 2007: Apartment 2J in 309 3rd Street sells for $1,050,000. This is the highest price recorded for one of these 3 BR apartments.
-January 2009: Apartment 1C in 306 2nd Street sells for $1,030,000.
-September 2009: Apartment 3H in 305 3rd Street goes into contract for $989,000.
So, let’s review the situation, shall we?
a) One year after Lehman, the actual SALES price is 6% less than the peak SALES price (No nonsense about cuts in asking price, which is meaningless). A little better than 50% off peak comps, I would say (BHO???)
b) One year after Lehman, the actual SALES price is still higher than 2005 levels.
I leave it to Muffie now to try to spin this data. Please inform us with those anectodotal stories “begging” you to offer 20% off the asking price. Please try to obfuscate with your talk about asking price, which, as I’ve tried to inform you so many times is MEANINGLESS.
Posted by: benson at September 30, 2009 12:20 PM