Where and When Will The Market Bottom?
Most people interviewed in this weekend Times article about New York’s real estate market finding its bottom seem to agree that prices so far have come down about 25 percent; how much further they have to fall is a matter of more varied opinion, though it sounds like 10 or 15 percent would be a…
Most people interviewed in this weekend Times article about New York’s real estate market finding its bottom seem to agree that prices so far have come down about 25 percent; how much further they have to fall is a matter of more varied opinion, though it sounds like 10 or 15 percent would be a consensus range. Which means we could be closer to the bottom than past cycles would suggest. Even if the New York market were to end up being 35 to 45 percent down, he said, to the degree we’re seeing deals done at 30 to 32 percent down anyway, it’s not very far away. What may happen, some speculate, is that the correction, however brutal, could be accelerated into a shorter time period that last go-round. It’s possible that rather than seeing price declines spread out over a six-year period, this time it could be concentrated in a two-year period, said Ingrid Gould Ellen, co-director of the Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy at NYU’s School of Law. That possibility, along with the fact that there are plenty of folks waiting in the wings wanting to buy, has the brokerage community cautiously optimistic that the real estate business may avoid having a lost decade. After all, what broker’s need to get paid are transactions more than high prices.
Looking for Bottom in N.Y. Real Estate [NY Times]
Photo by simplerich
And this is NOT a Godwin Law analogy!!! You have nuts like Rush Limbaughh coming out of the woodwork now!!! Be careful..
The What
Someday this war is gonna end…
Benson – not sure your numbers are accurate. Check out http://www.dqnews.com, which tracks real estate prices by zip code on a quarterly basis (y-o-y) numbers. According to that, Park slope is down 26% from Q4 2007 to Q4 2008.
11217 you know not of what you speak. The US $ will go up, not down in a depression. Prices fall, $ rises, very simple. Fact that the US $ is going up supports the deflation argument.
BTW, I also went to 3 open houses yesterday with friends who are looking to make the move from Manhattan to Brooklyn and I wouldn’t say they were packed, but definitely bustling. I did see a lot of people walking around with those real estate flyers yesterday.
The sheer fact that people are looking means there is still money out there. By the way the doom and gloom people are talking on here, why would people even boerth to look if they were as broke as you make it seem?
Just because The What is broke doesn’t mean we all are. I’ve saved more in the last 4 months that in any 4 month period IN MY LIFE!
Price of a condo in Brooklyn Hieghts 150,000 dollars
Price of a 4 Family Brownstone in Carroll Gardens 500,000 dollars
Seeing greedy real estate brokers like Cocorean go out of business? Priceless
Yes, look at the Euro, the Pound & the Yen.
The problem with the What’s assertion of the next “Great Depression” hinges on one important fact. For that to occur, the rest of the world would have to stop investing in the U.S. and there would have to be a flight AWAY from the dollar.
According to this, the exact opposite is happening…
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/09/business/09dollar.html?_r=1&hp
“Even you don’t believe that sh*t, What.
If someone told you in 1996 that the World Trade Center will be destroyed on September 11, 2001, would you believe that??????!!! We are in some “Strange days” and the sad thing is everybody is still asleep… The US Government has gave away over 1.5 Trillion dollars of Taxpayer money and there is no bottom in sight. Why I’m shifting gears now because the Mutant Asset Bubble is worse than I expected…
The What(Taste the rainbow)
Someday this war is gonna end…
Folks;
FIRE= Finance, Insurance and Real Estate.
Whuh and all: point taken that in our present day scenario it is real estate that is at the heart of the economic troubles. However, please consider that in the Great Depression the economic damage was much deeper: 25% unemployment, 1000’s of bank failures and a near-total collapse of global trade. It just strikes me that the level of economic meltdown required to bring prices in NYC down by 50% is much higher than what we are witnessing.
Let’s take another example: the collapse of Houston’s RE market in the 80’s, due to the precipitous collapse of oil prices back then. In the case of Houston, you are talking about a city that is much more a one-industry town: the energy industry. In that case, prices fell by about 25%. NYC has a much more diversified economy.
I agree with FSRQ in the way that this will play out. After the price collapse, real estate will essentially stay flat for at least a decade, if not more. As I mentioned in the case of the house I previously owned: after the depression, it did not climb back to its 1928 price level until 1961.