Recovery Sooner Than Later?
The market is supposed to be a forward-looking discounting machine. It’s supposed to price in what’s expected to happen over the next few months and years. Is the market perfect at this? No. If it were, there would be no real opportunity to do well in it. The market is, however, very good at incorporating…
I would not call this piece “news” – it’s an opinion piece. During NYC’s last RE market downturn, the housing downturn happened after the stock market went down – they do not move in lock-step. A bubble is a bubble, and there is no denying that NYC real estate grew into a huge bubble in the last 10 years. Even if the stock market rallies, that does not mean that the RE bubble magically vanishes. Plus, the market has rallied many times in the last few months, and then plunged again – there’s an unprecedented amount of uncertainty and volatility these days. We are in uncharted territory, though most experts and officials, including Obama, do not expect this to be a quick recovery. Bulls want to hear good news, but you cannot wish away a decade of irrationality in the markets and hope that things magically recover very quickly.
You must truly be a blind idiot if by now you didn’t know that even in the best case equities scenario that housing will continue to get pummeled…
i think im going to be on big brother this summer 🙂
*rob*
wasder: re: DOW/25to50/Brownstoneshalfoff/homeskillet – What is his ‘grand plan’ beyond buying a house for the Mrs. when/if prices come down some more?
Whuh…the US is one of the few places in the world where people consistently reinvent themselves after failing at something. In many other countries its looked down upon, exhibits bad face or quashes self esteem.
last week someone here queened out about there being condos and coops in nyc for under 100K and i was like shut up youre totally lying.. anyway i look in AM new york and various other places and im like whoa, there really are apts and stuff for well just about 100K. 1.) i cant afford that now anyway 2.) normally you put 10-20 percent down right? 3.) would i even be able to get a loan for that? and 4.) what would the mortgage be on a 100K place?
*rob*
Please don’t confuse the Stock Market or even the “economy” as New York City Real Estate.
I happen to agree that the massive amounts of $ being pumped into the system, time and a new administration will likely result in the economy beginning to change direction (out of free fall) and we might even see some growth by the end of ’09 BUT NYC – which is heavily dependent on a ‘failed’ industry and which hasnt seen the price drops of the rest of the country is in for a long long road – especially in RE. So while you might make a buck or 2 in the Stock Market, I predict housing prices will be falling here for a long long time to come.
I think there may be a rally (and for the sake of my wife’s 401k, I’m hoping for one), but I don’t think it will be long lived and I’d be careful of buying any equities without being ready to sell it quick or hold it a long long time.
Too funny. Big rally, economic recovery, home prices back to ’05. High beta –Dave, you crack me up. Out of curiosity –since your day trader screens are such a wellspring of information –which industry is going to absorb all the white collar unemployed? You do realize that, absent another bubble, actual productive wealth will be at the foundation of any recovery? What’s it going to be? Or should I put Play Dough in my microwave, and hope it turns to gold?