Recovery Sooner Than Later?
The market is supposed to be a forward-looking discounting machine. It’s supposed to price in what’s expected to happen over the next few months and years. Is the market perfect at this? No. If it were, there would be no real opportunity to do well in it. The market is, however, very good at incorporating…
Well fsrg, I think there’s a big difference between anonymous bloggers waxing on their thoughts, and economists with many years of experience. Sure, some of them failed to see this coming, most glaringly Bernake/Paulson (or were praying we would dodge the bullet), but others, like Nouriel Roubini, predicted it quite accurately, and even Obama was warning early on about the sub-prime crisis. There are obvious reasons to try to look the other way before the crisis hits (read: greed/denial), and during those years, the nay-sayers who pointed out the emperor wasn’t wearing any clothes were dismissed as party-poopers, crackpots, or “bitter renters”. But now that those outlyers have been proven correct and it’s undeniable that there was an unsustainable bubble, there is much broader consensus about the magnitude of the problem.
It is entertaining or I wouldn’t be calling him out like that. He knows that he will respond.
Whuh don’t bother with Dave! He is trying to get his “Pixie dust” to work again.
Wasder looks like Dow is getting to ya! Are you afraid he will buy a cheaper house on your block??? Looks that way to me.
“Whuh…the US is one of the few places in the world where people consistently reinvent themselves after failing at something. ”
Like Hedge Funds Dave?????!!!!
2009 is coming, be very very afraid…
The What (But.. But.. The Balance sheet looked fine a couple of months ago..)
Someday this war is gonna end…
I’m thinking that the next bubble will be “Alternative” energy or just energy. Whatever that means.
Ah, thanks wasder. I totally see DOWwhateverhisnameistoday as bit on the smart ass side of things. But I find it entertaining!
Also, even the author of this piece concedes there are too many unknowns to accurately predict a “bottom” to the stock market and he references all the incorrect predictions of the past. One of the key unknowns he cites is the housing market which could still fall significantly further. I would hardly call this “good news” (since, again, it isn’t even news) – the way it’s quoted here is misleading, and just seems like Brownstoner’s fodder to the bulls to throw them a bone, but if you read more closely, in no way does this specifically predict good news about the NYC housing market.
MM – I agree with your point on an intellectual basis but I have to point out one of your statements for shear amusement:
“We are in uncharted territory, though most experts and officials, including Obama, do not expect this to be a quick recovery.”
At this point with all of the obvious examples – can’t we all agree that “experts and officials” are essentially guessing just like everyone else – and therefore really arent experts at all.
cobblehiller–he seems to have this notion that if he can come up with a clever enough tagline and repeat it often enough that he can foment some kind of buyer’s revolution (he has said this himself) that will overthrow the old order.
I jest somewhat here but he has definitely expressed things that make me feel he has a highly overblown sense of his own importance.
ie. tech bubble
Can someone let me know what the next bubble is scheduled to be? I want to get a head start.