"Real Wave of Pain Just Beginning"?
In one of the grimmest articles we’ve read to date on the US housing market, the Market Oracle scoffs at Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson for saying on Friday that “the housing market is at or near the bottom and that the subprime mortgage situation is not a “serious problem.” Which begs the question, How serious…
In one of the grimmest articles we’ve read to date on the US housing market, the Market Oracle scoffs at Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson for saying on Friday that “the housing market is at or near the bottom and that the subprime mortgage situation is not a “serious problem.” Which begs the question, How serious a problem is it? Deadly, thinks fund manager Kenneth Heebner:
The real wave of pain and foreclosures is just beginning… would expect that housing prices in 2007 will decline 20% in a lot of markets…What you are going to see is the greatest price decline in housing since the Great Depression.
If the doomsday scenario does play out across the country, the $64,000 question will be to what extent is New York City (and Brooklyn) dragged into the mess.
Is It Too Late to Get Out? [Market Oracle]
Photo by billypalooza
And where exactly do you see the “silly money” going?
Allentown??
anyone who lives in brooklyn or new york and hopes for people to lose their shirts do not belong here.
period.
Sounds like a lot of nervous kool-aid drinkers around here. Since the market went up about 300% in the past 7-8 years, why does anyone think it should ONLY fall 20% now? And this is over several years with otherwise low inflation, and extremely low wage growth.
That’s psychology for ya. People have to get used to the idea first. At least we’re making some progress around here.
When the cocktail party consensus is that housing has nowhere to go but down, the brakes, and the wheels, will come off. And the silly money will go elsewhere fast.
Read Bloomberg’s 2030 Report and then talk to me about NYC “population loss” … rates may be going up but the local NYC economy is humming and demographic trends are on the side of owning.
265,000 new housing units needed in the next 20 years.
http://www.nyc.gov/html/planyc2030/html/plan/plan.shtml
ain’t nothing wrong with loving where you live so much that you are extremeley optimistic about it, 4:09.
most people i know who make brooklyn home absolutely LOVE their homes and are proud to be not only a member of their community in brooklyn but of a larger one in new york city.
when i travel especially in the u.s. to places outside major metropolitan centers, i am always surprised to find how ambivalent people are about where they live.
not the case here in brooklyn. you can denounce it as being a bubblehead or whatever but whether the real estate market tanks or not, i will always be proud to call brooklyn my home.
i personally think that’s quite special and worth fighting for.
NYC bubbleheads!!! You need to get out of the 4 boroughs(who cares about SI).
I used to think the French where stuck-up elitist snobs. But hearing you folks talk about NYC like its some sort of bullet-proof RE oasis makes me think NYC(especially Brooklyn) is the mecca of snobbery.
my thing is that i don’t understand why people continuously say that prices are beyond reason and “unimaginable” i believe as one poster said.
since people are buying them, how can the prices be that crazy? obviously i’m playing devils advocate here, but people are clearly buying new york city properties, so they have the money to do it, have decided that the purchase price is acceptable and follow through. clearly there is more wealth out there than a lot of brooklynites wish to accept or acknowledge. someone who can afford even a million dollars (not a lot in today’s market) does not need to worry about prices correcting. the wealthy will continue to become more wealthy, housing burst or not.
and to those that comment on the ever increasing supply of condos coming onto the market in brooklyn, you make it seem as though they are coming all at once. this is a gradual process, and units are sold block by block, we see it happening now with one hanson. 50% sold, and in another year, when they are gone, there will be another building to take its place.
please do keep in mind the prediction of a million new residents to new york in the next 20 years. when you think about it in those terms, what’s 5000-10,000 units. we are gonna need a helluva lot more than that to keep up with demand…
2:36 has it right. When you have to pay 18k for the same space in Soho for a house with a mortgage of 8K in brooklyn you can see why people coming from Manhattan don’t think its expensive, relatively. It happens day in and day out and will continue to do it until its the same price because as far as I can see once people live here they like it better. For this reason brooklyn prices at least for family sized houses and apartments can definitely go up from here. There are many people who make upwards of 500k annually in nyc who are dissing manhattan and the suburbs for brooklyn. Just my opinion.
3:07, why do you think the glut of condos won’t hurt Brownstones. More rentals and condos mean lower rents for Brownstones, thus decreasing the value.