Open House Picks: Six Months Later
Comment: Gulp! Open House Picks 5/30/08 [Brownstoner] Previous Six Months Later Posts [Brownstoner]
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Comment: Gulp! Open House Picks 5/30/08 [Brownstoner] Previous Six Months Later Posts [Brownstoner]
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Hi Wasder,
It really is fortunate that he come along… actually he can’t be that unique, but I think it is nevertheless fortunate. One would think that every presidential candidate should be up to his standard but sadly we have learned that that is not the case. Importantly he is respected not just by Americans but around the world.
I love to hear difficult truths (I mean rather than opinions), they allow me to adjust my life accordingly. Obama is not afraid of them but do you think that the majority of the general public wants to hear them… I get the impression they would rather be comforted. Not to say that the comfort is not an important part of the equation. Until the public feel comfortable they will not start producing and consuming again.
He has to provide both truth and comfort. I think he is doing a good job pre election too.
Obama never said this wasn’t going to hurt What. Thank god we have a president coming in who will talk to people in a straightforward manner and isn’t afraid of difficult truths.
***Bid half off twice the ask and/or peak comps you can afford***
Naw it should read:Bid 75% off the ask and/or the comps right now. Or maybe just bid 75% off and tell then to “get bent” because that price is going to get a serious haircut!
Wow I missed all the fun here, Aw man!
BTW Did you see Obama speech? He was telling you Asshats to do some Sphincter Tighting Exercises! Because 2009 is gonna hurt real bad…
The What (But.. But.. he told me this wont hurt a bit..)
Someday this war is gonna end…
“Explain, please. Serious question.”
Typo. It’s supposed to say “the [peak] comps you can afford” (clarified below). What I mean is don’t be repelled by asking prices (or peak comps when asking prices REALLY start dropping) that are twice what you can afford since you are likely to afford them when the market finally bottoms. Instead of waiting for the bottom, lowball accordingly.
If you predict a lower drop, say 25%, then bid what you can afford on a listing that has an ask or peak comp in the amount of what you can afford divided by [1 – (Predicted Percentage Drop)/100] = 1.33 x (Your Affordable Price). But to me, in the face of a wild 200% run-up, a 25% drop is optimistic.
***Bid half off twice the ask and/or peak comps you can afford***
“Bid half off twice the comps you can afford”
Explain, please. Serious question.
“My God DOW, try to stick to name.”
This is it. I promise.
“my reading of Miss Muffett is that she feels prices could decline by half without a commensurate drop in various standard of indices”
Please quote her. I didn’t see where she meant this.
“trader by day wannabe bad-boy real estate prognosticator by night”
I’m honored.
“He wants a cheap house come hell or high water.”
Wrong about the cheap part. I don’t want to pay twice what a house is worth. Right about the hell or high water part. I am hellbent!
“Why Miss Muffett gets such grief while DOW/25to50/BHO gets a relatively free ride is beyond me.”
Probably because I don’t post as frequently as she. But given my new name and slogan/mission statement, I’m sure I’ll soon catch some grief.
***Bid half off twice the comps you can afford***
“Your argument that NYC didn’t go down before so will go down now without other areas has no substance to it.”
Why not? It’s not that the anyone is saying NYC will go down *without* other areas – rather, that the other areas have *already* fallen but NYC has remained relatively untouched. NYC has lagged before and can lag again this time. Besides, everyone is saying the national market has further to fall. But, because it has already fallen so much, it will probably not fall that much further. NYC, by contrast, has barely been hit by comparison, so it has a lot of catching up to do.
You are totally dismissive of this argument, but it is you who offer no substance to support your complete dismissal.
The damage to corporate balance sheets that you discuss has already happened, and the doom and gloom of the financial markets prices in the pessimism that the balance sheets are not going to get better anytime soon. The addition of NYC real estate declines is not, by itself, going to radically alter that reality which is already firmly established, and which is based on a *much* bigger real estate market that is not just national, but also global. NYC, comparatively, is a drop in the bucket.
And no one is saying life will be totally rosy for the next few years. Rational people realize that we must brace ourselves for some tough times. But that does not mean things have to fall apart. Don’t forget that the role of government will be huge. There is broad consensus that this recession will be deep and long, but there is also unprecedented support for massive government intervention. I suspect NYC in particular will work hard to preserve the quality of life gains of the last 10-15 years. Does that mean things will rosy? Of course not. But really, Aussie, a decline in NYC real estate prices is not necessarily as catastrophic as you insist.
“who’s idea was that”–my reading of Miss Muffett is that she feels prices could decline by half without a commensurate drop in various standard of indices. I would love to believe that but it strikes me as farfetched.
DOW/25to50/Brownstoneshalfoff (agree with Aussie DOW, pick one name and stick with it) is a trader by day wannabe bad-boy real estate prognosticator by night. He wants a cheap house come hell or high water. Why Miss Muffett gets such grief while DOW/25to50/BHO gets a relatively free ride is beyond me.
If somebody could explain in relatively laymens terms about how prices could decline by half without living conditions in Brooklyn severely declining I would love to hear it (and would be happy to believe it).
My God DOW, try to stick to name.