Open House Picks: Six Months Later
Comment: Gulp! Open House Picks 5/30/08 [Brownstoner] Previous Six Months Later Posts [Brownstoner]
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Muffy and Aussie,
Could the 2 of you just post a link to one of the previous arguments you’ve had, rather than endlessly rehashing the same old fight: “Aussie you moron, big price drops are on the way” vs. “Muffy, you ignorant slut, they’re not dropping in the nice areas and you’re an idiot if you think they will”
Well, Aussie, you can stay in denial, but even you are conceding price declines all around – it’s just a question of how much, how long.
WHAT ABOUT:
1. Property in Brooklyn was significantly undervalued a couple of years ago, PROPERTY IN PARTS OF BROOKLYN WAS THE CORRECT VALUE OR ONLY SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO. 2. There is something about the nature of New York going forward which would increase the rate of demand for homes as compared to the expected demand a few years ago, THE NATURE OF PARTS OF BROOKLYN KEEPS THE RATE OF DEMAND GOING FORWARD EQUAL TO OR ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SUPPLY BECAUSE IN SOME AREAS PEOPLE WONT NEED TO SELL or 3. Prices will decrease PRICES IN SOME PARTS OF BROOKLYN DON’T SEE BIG PRICE REDUCTIONS FROM HERE.
“I’m not wed to a magic percent decline since there is so much variation property by property”
The variation was priced in before the price spike. Which nabes deviated from the tripling of the NY Case-Shiller index? I say start your bid at 50% peak comps.
It seems that we are really just now getting to the point where prices are where they were a year or two ago. Since that time virtually every other financial asset is down and down significantly (30 – 40% on average.)
So you really only have three choices. 1. Property in Brooklyn was significantly undervalued a couple of years ago, 2. There is something about the nature of New York going forward which would increase the rate of demand for homes as compared to the expected demand a few years ago, or 3. Prices will decrease.
I don’t believe 1, can’t fathom 2, and thus believe 3 must be our choice. Where have I gone wrong? And I honestly realize I might have, I just don’t see it.
Aussie – I know you don’t agree, you’ve made that clear. But I wonder if it’s just a matter of perspective. That is, yes, there are some big cuts now, but there are many sellers clinging to old prices/minor cuts and thus having their places linger (which is confirmed by this feature, or any perusal of current listings). That’s what I mean when I say cuts have barely begun. And some of the cuts ARE starting in the prime areas, even substantial ones. All indicators point to these cuts increasing. All I want is a nice place I can afford – I’m not wed to a magic percent decline since there is so much variation property by property, block by block, and I am confident that we will find what we want and will get a better deal when we finally do buy than if we had bought this past year.
Muffy, I don’t agree, I think you can find some pretty big cuts now. They might get bigger… just not as big as you want and not in the places you (and lots of other people) are looking.
ouch
I agree with MM–this is still the first phase of the cuts. People have to stop comparing prices to those of 6 months ago.