NYC Real Estate Market 'Most Challenged'
“When we look at New York City, we look at a price-income ratio that historically has been four times income, versus three times nationwide… If you want simply to get back to the median, it would be a 46% correction…If I had to pick one market in the country with the most challenge and the…
“When we look at New York City, we look at a price-income ratio that historically has been four times income, versus three times nationwide… If you want simply to get back to the median, it would be a 46% correction…If I had to pick one market in the country with the most challenge and the most substantive rate of decline [ahead], it’s New York City. It has the greatest number of job losses among the higher earners.” — Ivy Zelman, a former Credit Suisse analyst, in Barron’s via Curbed.
the last remnants of the delusional:
dibs – ghetto speculator who stands to lose 75%
11217 – “life experiences” proves that bk is the envy of the world
lechacal – “Brooklyn is hot. Now I have friends who come here from Manhattan on Saturday nights.
In the past two weekends, I have seen people swarming like vultures around the listings for sale in the windows of real estate offices on 7th and 5th Avenues. They seem like they are on a mission.
There are SOME people who know that buying in a down time is an opportunity to snag a deal.
11217….like I’ve maintained, there’s hardly going to be a mass of people leaving Brooklyn for lower prices in Manhattan. That’s just crazy talk.
“I think your “half off” thing is pretty spot on. the details aren’t that important – infl has been low so nominal and real are close to the same, and we’re still close to peak.”
Again, the question is, from when do you measure the half off?
A Glass Box Shatters a Record
NYTIMES
By JOSH BARBANEL
Published: February 20, 2009
A NEW duplex penthouse built on top of a converted loft building in TriBeCa has sold for $30 million, setting a record for the highest-priced Manhattan apartment sold to date south of Columbus Circle.
wasder, he can’t think of anything creative to say himself so he needs the What here as his mentor.
11217 fair enough — I said earlier that a smaller bubble would be a good justification for that argument.
BHO I think my 11:47 got missed. pretty sure those stats are mis-used.
I think your “half off” thing is pretty spot on. the details aren’t that important – infl has been low so nominal and real are close to the same, and we’re still close to peak.
but the doubling (we’ll call it doubling, tho I think it’s more) started around 2000, when the OTHER asset price bubble burst (dot-coms), right when the fed began its low-IR assault to lessen the 2001 recession (it worked, and you can read greenspan’s gloating in his book…cue “Jaws” theme). I think a base case that we return to that level makes sense.
I rented years ago in Manhattan (before kids) and bought in Brooklyn. Now many years later with 2 kids in (public) school in Manhattan, if it was a financially equivalent proposition to trade our house for a smaller place in Manhattan, it would look attractive.
If prices are down 15% (or 12.8%) from peak, they’d need to go down about 40% from today’s prices to make the 50% off the peak mark. That’s impossible according to team bull, but down 20% this year and down a similar percentage in 2010 … doesn’t sound implausible. (Disclaimer – have not joined team bull or bear … no realistic plans to be a seller or a buyer in the near future).
Enter Whuh, as usual with the assinine comments. People that do nothing but manage their own money usually have a fair amount of it; and they don’t accumulate it by being as uninformed as someone like you.