NYC Real Estate Market 'Most Challenged'
“When we look at New York City, we look at a price-income ratio that historically has been four times income, versus three times nationwide… If you want simply to get back to the median, it would be a 46% correction…If I had to pick one market in the country with the most challenge and the…
“When we look at New York City, we look at a price-income ratio that historically has been four times income, versus three times nationwide… If you want simply to get back to the median, it would be a 46% correction…If I had to pick one market in the country with the most challenge and the most substantive rate of decline [ahead], it’s New York City. It has the greatest number of job losses among the higher earners.” — Ivy Zelman, a former Credit Suisse analyst, in Barron’s via Curbed.
“Because even if Dave lost his shirt in Bed Stuy (which I don’t think will be the case) he has 3 other homes, from what I gather.”
OMG!!!!!! Your quote was to support Dibs but instead you’ve made him look IMPOSSIBLY more retarted!!!!!! Bed stuy -75% is enough humiliation, 3 others? If this is true, Sebb is einstein compared to this guy…
Joe,
So you don’t take into account the gentrification process in all of this?
Riverside, California was the same boring suburb with a 2 hour commute into Downtown LA in 2000 as it now is in 2009. It’s just packed now with even more cookie cutter homes. Prices are down 40-50% there.
Do you not think that the incredible change and improvement in most of NYC’s neighborhoods in the last decade with regard to improved schools, a dramatic decrease in crime (making it the safest large city in the U.S) and the continued diversity of people, retail, restaurants, nightlife, etc would account for something?
snark, why do you have to go and be serious for once? Haha, I actually like your non-snarky side.
Just what is “sticky gentrification?”
I suspect that I could sell my house now for about $775…I paid $820 and put another $100k into it. that’s a loss of $145k but I’m happy living here for the next 5-10 years and eventually I’ll make some money on it. As it is, my net cash flow from moving from Manhattan to this place has increased dramatically. Whereas I was paying $5,000 in taxes and $7,200 in common charges in Manhattan, I am now making about $11,000 after rental income, utility and tax deductions!!!! The actual mortage amounts were about the same…$2,600 per month. A net positive cash flow of $23,000 a year…which will cover the current estimated loss of ewuity in 6.25 years!!!!!!!
WHAT DO YOUR NUMBERS LOOK LIKE CORNERBODEGA????????
alternatively, take the 46% number from the article that started this think, and adjust for the fact that incomes are falling. I think someone else made that point.
the argument has been made for price/rent as well as monthly ownership cost/rent, by a golman economist named jan hatzius.
the last one (monthly ownership cost/rent) is crushing, becuase common charges are going up while rents are going down, further impacting the price result.
DIBS,
I don’t think you need “a mass of people leaving Brooklyn” for prices to fall. Obviously, people who bought in the last 5 years will NOT sell if they’re going to lose 20% or more off their home (investment) UNLESS they absolutely have to. With unemployment rising (especially in NYC because high paying Wall Street jobs are disappearing, my prediction 9% unemployment in NYC by the end of 2010) some (not all or in mass) homeowners will not be able to afford their homes and will be forced to sell but the demand (available buyers who can afford the down payments and monthly mortgage payments) will not be there —> price reductions (maybe free fall).
“sticky gentrification” vs Market forces (Supply and Demand) –> I’m pretty sure market forces will always win out!
ZooLander
> “I have seen people swarming like vultures around the listings for sale in the windows of real estate offices on 7th and 5th Avenues.”
Do you seriously take that as an indicator of market health?
People always do that.
I myself always do that, and I’m not looking to buy for 12-24 months while I see how things sort out.
Actually I did go to an open house this weekend. It was the end of the open house, and there were only three names on the sign in sheet above mine. That’s the low level of attendance that I have been seeing for the past few months.
I think that many people, like myself, are watching and waiting.
(Reading this thread is like watching an all-star game)