Bearish Brownstoners Miss Mark on 2nd Street Sale
So far we have precious few data points on the predictive powers of the pricing widget. For a while, the only HOTD or COTD to sell was 316 Cumberland Street, which sold for $2,250,000 in June, a shade less than the asking price of $2,295,000 but almost $360,000 more than widget voters predicted. And now…
So far we have precious few data points on the predictive powers of the pricing widget. For a while, the only HOTD or COTD to sell was 316 Cumberland Street, which sold for $2,250,000 in June, a shade less than the asking price of $2,295,000 but almost $360,000 more than widget voters predicted. And now our second data point shows an equally bearish disposition: 93 2nd Street, which generated a predicted selling price of $914,379, just closed for $1,086,312; in our defense, we said at the time that “We could see it getting pretty close to” the asking price of $1,125,000. Interesting, eh?
House of the Day: 93 2nd Street [Brownstoner]
DIBS, unfortunately, I know all too well about the contract. I’ll tell you the story about this condo during our house tour or when I meet you in person, whichever comes first.
This thread proves that folks on Brownstoner are so heavily emotionally invested in their position as to the direction (and magnitude of that direction) of the Brooklyn RE market that they will fight over the meaning of any morsel of data that they think bears (no pun intended) on the question. It’s tiring — like the Sunday morning political talk shows — News item: Obama sneezes. From the left “he’s human” from the right “he’s lying to us about his health.”
The widget says nothing about what anyone thinks about the direction of the market. Appraisal is about where you think the market for a particular house is now. Get that through your skulls, folks. The sole issue of the original post of this thread is the accuracy of the widget. You can be 20% wrong about the current market value and still right about market direction and vice versa.
On that question, given that we now have 4 data points, all of which put the widget 15-25% below sale price, are we getting closer to a pattern yet? Anyone have a counterexample yet?
“Lots of people have to move for various reasons, frequently in Brooklyn it’s because of an expanding family. For those people it’s actually a great time to buy. Sure they could rent somewhere, try to time the market to save 5-10-15%, but that means moving twice (which can be hard for kids) and since interest rates could be going up it might not make a big difference on your monthly payment anyway. Plus for people renting today (as opposed to already living in a rent stabilized place) the cost of living in a crappy rental really might not look that great.”
This is so true.
CGar…that’s a very nice place with very low CCs (tax abatement). I see its already under contract. 🙁
P.S. DIBS – funny you mention the furniture since most of mine is suited for a Brownstone parlor, not a modern condo!
I do agree with MR about buying something outside NYC. It depends on how old you are and how far in the future you can think regarding “retirement” and what that is likely to look like. I won’t be retiring in NYC, I’m sure of that, so I have already thought through the issue of taxation in other states, climate, lifestyle, proximity of retirement home to nearest watering hole, etc, etc, etc.
If you are young, these things may not be a high priority but if you’re in a jobe where you will have a pension or can realistically plan for your retirement then this thinking should be paramount at times like these when real estate bargains can be had. FL & NV are especially cheap, I just don’t want to live in places like that.
Thanks, DIBS. LOL re: senility! I would love to take you up on your offer since I know nothing about Bed Stuy. Truth be told, I’m torn about what I want. Part of me wants another house; I agree with all the virtues you cite about a house, from the space to the detail to the garden to no board approval for anything; the question for me is whether I want to deal with tenants and repairs again. On the flip side (no pun intended 😉 ), though I suspect you’ll think me crazy, there’s something to be said about the right turn-key condo – e.g., take a look at this one, I’m curious to know what you think: http://corcoran.com/property/listing.aspx?Region=NYC&ListingID=1527336&ohDat=#).
MoneyForNothing you should never move. Seriously why would you unless you have grown to hate SOHO (which I personally do, but you probably don’t). If you’ve got a sweet pad that’s permanently cheap you should just stay. Don’t buy in Brooklyn. Go buy property outside the city as a vacation home or buy an investment property when you feel the market is right.
Lots of people have to move for various reasons, frequently in Brooklyn it’s because of an expanding family. For those people it’s actually a great time to buy. Sure they could rent somewhere, try to time the market to save 5-10-15%, but that means moving twice (which can be hard for kids) and since interest rates could be going up it might not make a big difference on your monthly payment anyway. Plus for people renting today (as opposed to already living in a rent stabilized place) the cost of living in a crappy rental really might not look that great.
What I don’t get is that with so many people like yourself on this board and around NYC that are waiting to buy…when exactly is the bottom going to drop out? If prices continue to tick down slowly more people are going to decide it’s the right time, which will keep the market from tanking. There are so many potential buyers waiting to get into the market I just don’t see it taking a huge dive.
Sorry if you were trying to pick a fight, I’m not one of those types on this board, just a civilian trying to talk real estate.
Hey BO. Take a whiff of this sale.
4/18/09 HOTD 489 16th St
Widget: 1,243,011
Actual: 1,500,000 (+20%)
Ask: 1,595,000 (-6%)
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/489-16-street-brooklyn
Notice a pattern yet? 4 nothing.