Bearish Brownstoners Miss Mark on 2nd Street Sale
So far we have precious few data points on the predictive powers of the pricing widget. For a while, the only HOTD or COTD to sell was 316 Cumberland Street, which sold for $2,250,000 in June, a shade less than the asking price of $2,295,000 but almost $360,000 more than widget voters predicted. And now…
So far we have precious few data points on the predictive powers of the pricing widget. For a while, the only HOTD or COTD to sell was 316 Cumberland Street, which sold for $2,250,000 in June, a shade less than the asking price of $2,295,000 but almost $360,000 more than widget voters predicted. And now our second data point shows an equally bearish disposition: 93 2nd Street, which generated a predicted selling price of $914,379, just closed for $1,086,312; in our defense, we said at the time that “We could see it getting pretty close to” the asking price of $1,125,000. Interesting, eh?
House of the Day: 93 2nd Street [Brownstoner]
Kens, no question you’re right, and I’m going to take DIBS up on his offer. I saw on the OT the other day that you guys had a great outing last weekend. Funny thing is, I didn’t even want to look at that condo, but my broker insisted I go, and then, to my shock, I loved it. That’s why I say I’m torn about what I want. If I stay in the B’Heights-C’Hill-C’Gardens rectangle, and go the apartment route, for better and worse that condo is my yardstick. But, I get the allure of a house. As for the other neighborhoods you mention, I have to dig up a link to a Victorian I fell for in Ditmas Park.
MFN-
Sorry if I misinterpreted your tone.
I def see your dilemma.
Obviously we all here can’t know and disagree with where the market is heading. If you think it’s got more than 15% down to go then I guess you stay put. And I know that $150k is huge money. But the $1.5mil mortgage at today’s 5% means $8k-ish per month. The 1.35mil monthly at a still very low 6% is…$8k-ish. Keep in mind that real estate is not the only asset that can go up or down. Where is your large downpayment? Stocks? Not so large anymore. Savings account? Getting eaten up every day. If you are getting 7% for it per annum then that is even more valuable than your sweet SOHO pad and you are double blessed.
You are in the catbird seat and like I said earlier, waiting is pretty safe for you.
When I was in the same position I figured I’d do better financially if I waited, but would lose my sanity, warp my child, and wreck my marriage. But then again the rentals I was seeing for the price were horrible at the time.
Kinda like you and the Yankees, ENY. 🙂
I wouldn’t bank on 7%. It’s likely to be more like 5% and for the past 15 years has been less than that for the S&P500.
Yes we have a pattern and it starting to prove that what we have here is called a herd of bears.
not much different than the prior herd of bulls, just a little more grating in tone.
there are a couple more April HOTDs in contract so stay tuned folks.
“This thread proves that folks on Brownstoner are so heavily emotionally invested in their position as to the direction (and magnitude of that direction) of the Brooklyn RE market that they will fight over the meaning of any morsel of data that they think bears (no pun intended) on the question. It’s tiring — like the Sunday morning political talk shows — News item: Obama sneezes. From the left “he’s human” from the right “he’s lying to us about his health.”
Couldn’t agree more.
CGar I think you can get way more bang for your buck in BedStuy than the condo link that you posted.
You should definitely take up Dave on his offer to see his “ghetto money manager crib”, especially his deck and garden. Something tells me your opinion may change very quickly.
I was very happy that I actually got to walk the streets a little bit (courtesy of DIBS, DH and M4L) last weekend (a little piece in Crown Heights and a little piece in BedStuy). Prior to that, I only drove through the area.
Having said that, I can respect the architecture of both BS and CH but I think I prefer Kensington, Windsor Terrace, Ditmas Park area more. It’s a personal choice and I grew up in the area so I am a bit prejudiced towards that.
MR,
Anyone who’s seen me here knows I’m a total non-fight picker.
I think that trash is pure silliness. Hell, DIBS called me “reasonable,” and for this forum, that’s saying alot. I’m probably one of the most ardent supporters of talking fundamentals, not jr real-estate appraising and how tacky people’s decor is.
I can’t stand SOHO. Have watched the nabe become a tourist trap loaded with eurotrash and russian oligarchs. But $1,575 rent a month for a large 1 BR cures a lot of ills.
I have an expanding family—I’m one of these people you’re mentioning. I have an 18-month old daughter, in an apartment I’m outgrowing and a very large 6-figure pile of cash waiting to go.
But the 5-10% savings you’re capping out at seems optimistic when I’m seeing homes get cut for 10% and still not move. By your argument, I should have bought 3 months ago, overpaid by about 10-15% already, and probably have another 10-20% downside to go.
And if rates go off, general estimate says that for every 1% in mortgage rate adjustment, lop 3% off the home value (I believe that’s the #). So increased rates mean lower prices and a more advantageous position for the buyer: Lower down payment and deductibility for the increased interest payment, which is spread over 30 years, and further depreciated by the time/value cost of money.
But even if you’re right, and we only have 10% to go, $150,000 off a 1.5 million brownstone (and that’s cheap) is hardly something to shrug off.
Put that 150K into a diversified portfolio and watch it compound 7% per annum for 30 years and I say the moving twice was well worth it.
I want a home here for my family. But again, there are so many reasons to wait if you can. If you can’t, you can’t—buy that home and enjoy it for everything it’s worth. But don;t dare overreach for home you can;t afford.
slopefarm – ROFL on your Obama analogy! So true, both as to Obama and the real estate market!