Bearish Brownstoners Miss Mark on 2nd Street Sale
So far we have precious few data points on the predictive powers of the pricing widget. For a while, the only HOTD or COTD to sell was 316 Cumberland Street, which sold for $2,250,000 in June, a shade less than the asking price of $2,295,000 but almost $360,000 more than widget voters predicted. And now…
So far we have precious few data points on the predictive powers of the pricing widget. For a while, the only HOTD or COTD to sell was 316 Cumberland Street, which sold for $2,250,000 in June, a shade less than the asking price of $2,295,000 but almost $360,000 more than widget voters predicted. And now our second data point shows an equally bearish disposition: 93 2nd Street, which generated a predicted selling price of $914,379, just closed for $1,086,312; in our defense, we said at the time that “We could see it getting pretty close to” the asking price of $1,125,000. Interesting, eh?
House of the Day: 93 2nd Street [Brownstoner]
11217 buying a house carries a lot more then buying stocks.
“If you are a buyer (like me) with time to spare and reasonable rent, you are in the driver’s seat, plain and simple.”
Very true MFN, despite any data points on the widget. A patient buyer with reasonable rent still has the upper hand.
You are so right MR.
It’s impossible to live somewhere by renting. And worse off, it’s ALWAYS the financially worse decision.
Take me for example.
12 long years frittering away my hard earned cash in a 50%-below market value, rent-stabilized place in Soho, and absolutely nowhere to live.
Whatever will I do with the $200,000 in saved rent I’ve socked away the last dozen years?
I know, TMI, and I hate to gloat, but let’s just say their are alternatives to overpaying.
Or, unless you want a home of your own to remodel as you please and not want to be a tenant of a landlord in a place that you probably have outgrown.
“The downside risk far outweighs the upside risk, plain and simple.”
And some people don’t think about buying a home as a risk at all, they think about it as a roof over their heads and a place to raise a family.
People like you who seem to equate them to stock purchases is how we get into trouble.
“Reality is, there’s no reason to buy quickly unless you’ve got enough spare cash after a massive down payment and just don’t give a f*ck.”
or unless you need a place to live
CGed:
Many that get reductions also get delisted after painful reality that all the cuts just won’t make the property move.
Others sit with no reduction forever–sellers just fishing to see if they can get a bite.
I’m tracking upwards of 100 houses in 5 nabes, about 35 of which I’ve seen. Most are cut and/or delisted. I’d put sales in the 5% range of my sample, and those are usually really standout properties that are not absurdly priced. A bit more statistically valid than 2 widget appraisals.
Reality is, there’s no reason to buy quickly unless you’ve got enough spare cash after a massive down payment and just don’t give a f*ck.
As SlopeFarm said, houses are not like stocks. He’s right, but not just for the reason he stated——you have little chance of “missing” the bottom and getting quickly squeezed on the upside by any significant price appreciation.
If you are a buyer (like me) with time to spare and reasonable rent, you are in the driver’s seat, plain and simple.
The downside risk far outweighs the upside risk, plain and simple.
Well I think the takeaway from this entire thread is that the “Average Reader Appraisal” is absurd. I’d venture that it doesn’t even accurately reflect what posters really think. There is so much posturing going on here that a lot of posters (most? all?) will appraise a property way above or below their actual belief in order to counter an appraisal from the other “team”. In fact I’d go so far as to say that the “20% more than widget price” valuator, which seems fairly accurate, really means that we all pretty much know what a place will sell for, but the bears have 20% more posting power here than the bulls.
Just got in from a long business trip. Wish I had gotten in on this conversation from the beginning. So classic. Biff was spot on about the 1.20 ratio. And What, the herd mentality you mentioned as QOTY was actually intended to be a commentary on the herd mentality of the bear side of the argument. But anyway, this is neither here nor there in the larger picture. IT is but one sale, but a trend could emerge from further widget-predicted sales. The larger issue for the recovery of the market is the sheer number of properties featured as HOTD or COTD that haven’t sold at all. Until we start to see these moving more regularly it won’t be too much to cheer about. But still, I am happy for these sellers and hope this indicates a stabilization in housing prices, though I remain cautious and skeptical.
Nice to see everyone by the way, feels like forever since I have been able to post.