Bank Predicts NYC Market to Fall Another 40 Percent
If a certain bank analyst is to be believed, New York real estate has a long way to go still before reaching bottom. A Time article earlier this week cites a Deutsche Bank report predicting that housing prices in the New York metropolitan area will fall 40 percent from their March levels. The major driver…
If a certain bank analyst is to be believed, New York real estate has a long way to go still before reaching bottom. A Time article earlier this week cites a Deutsche Bank report predicting that housing prices in the New York metropolitan area will fall 40 percent from their March levels. The major driver of the bank’s estimate is an affordability index that shows New York is still relatively a very pricey place to shack up.
New York Home Prices Forecast to Drop 40% [Time]
Photo by tomodea
Pizza sounds damn good right now. . . what a shitty day. . .
realitycheque… Eurotrash.
Wow, realitycheque, and you created a username just to post this one time!
How convenient!
ennuator…it was only meant for those above^^^^^^ Didn’t mean to offend anyone else. Some of my best friends are renters and I’d never kick one out of bed.
I know it rubs the wrong way but again it was only meant to be rubbed in those faces who attack. I’m 53 so yes, I started a long time ago. Because of that i think I have a lot more experience. I’ve bought and sold close to 20 places and done many total gut renovations. I’ve only lost money on one back in the early 90s and lost about $10k after a big renovation. You’re right, my only children are my houses.
I’m the last one to believe anyone is entitled to anything. Sorry if I sometimes come off as an asshole but I think most people know its only aimed at the few others here that act like assholes. 🙂
OK folks – your drivel is all very entertaining. But here are some facts. Karen Weaver who wrote the piece at DB is probably one of the most respected authorities on the US mortgage market. You can listen to twits like DIBS or 11217 or you listen to a professional who’s report is only based on facts. Don’t believe me? Read a real journalist (Michael Lewis) who chronicles Deutsche’s key role in identifying the over-cooked mortgage market.
http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom
Well guess who did the work and made the bank a fortune? The reason she is so respected is that she has a propensity to be right.
Historically peak-to-trough housing cycles last 4 to 4.5 years, so in places like Vegas where there has been a 60% correction since it peaked in 2006, there is value emerging. Unlike Vegas, NY prices only peaked 18 months ago, so we have another 3 years to go. So the 42% drop is based over 3 years, which is only about -12% per annum. Not quite as dramtic, huh?
Well get this -I said her report is only based on fact. The MSA data was from the end of March, so the model used prevailing mortgage rates of 5% and an unemployment rate of 8.5%. Now they are 5.7% and 9.4%. What do you think that does for affordability?
THERE IS A LOT MORE DOWNSIDE TO COME. BE VERY CAREFUL.
“Some of us young’uns here are working quite hard to get the nest egg together to buy, and don’t plan on renting forever unless the RE bubble reinflates itself and we are quite simply priced out of the market as housing has gone up so much faster than salaries for us plebes. ”
Amen. Someone get ennuiater some skittles.
Yanno Dave, it would be nice if you could drop the sneering derision you have for “you renters” and focus it instead on the ones that attack you personally.
Some of us young’uns here are working quite hard to get the nest egg together to buy, and don’t plan on renting forever unless the RE bubble reinflates itself and we are quite simply priced out of the market as housing has gone up so much faster than salaries for us plebes.
Not everyone bought their first home in the 80s or works in finance, or has the disposable income of a single person. I don’t know if you do it intentionally, but your self entitlement sometimes rubs the wrong way. 😐
DIBS — you seriously think your bed stuy brownstone is going to be worth more than you paid for it in 5-10 years? Really? Didn’t you buy at the peak of the market? And you’re expecting bed stuy real estate to regain all it’s current and anticipated losses and outperform 2007 within 10 years? Sorry, but that is just delusional.
I see I’m not the only one with a sub 500 English score.