Bank Predicts NYC Market to Fall Another 40 Percent
If a certain bank analyst is to be believed, New York real estate has a long way to go still before reaching bottom. A Time article earlier this week cites a Deutsche Bank report predicting that housing prices in the New York metropolitan area will fall 40 percent from their March levels. The major driver…
If a certain bank analyst is to be believed, New York real estate has a long way to go still before reaching bottom. A Time article earlier this week cites a Deutsche Bank report predicting that housing prices in the New York metropolitan area will fall 40 percent from their March levels. The major driver of the bank’s estimate is an affordability index that shows New York is still relatively a very pricey place to shack up.
New York Home Prices Forecast to Drop 40% [Time]
Photo by tomodea
Ah haha Dave, I would never. I’m sorry to call you out, I must be feeling cranky today. Something northsloperenter? I think it was? said above rang a bell with me.
I too got a 0% raise this year and a tiny bonus. I work in apparel, and just read today Rheul is to be shuttered by A&F- and Eddie Bauer filed for Ch.11 yesterday… retailers are taking a beating and it means a lot of folks out of jobs.
While it would be nice if the market dropped a teeny bit for affordability, I sure hope I still have a damn job when the dust settles and I can buy that 2bed coop I want. Hopefully before I’m 50!
miss muffet — I like that one. “cash-flush people”.
But you’ve all heard me say that before!!! 🙂
Heather…that phenomenon can continue. there are tens of thousands of manhattan condo owners that still, even at these prices, have huge gains and huge amount of equity. I think one of the primary reasons that the Brooklyn condo market is doing so poorly is that these people are generally savvy buyers and know not to touch any new development. The risk of things going wrong in 2-3 years is very, very high.
There’s a much smaller inventory of brownstones than there is condos.
Many people like to treat the brownstone/house market as if it’s totally separate from the apartment market. While I’m sure there are some cash-flush people out there who can buy without selling an apartment, historically many brownstone/house buyers financed their purchase by selling their apartment. It defies logic to completely divorce the markets – one impacts the other. And while limited supply is a constant argument made by bulls, that only goes so far, as lingering overpriced townhouses even in prime hoods show.
Is this thread not dead yet? Here’s something new:
June 18 (Bloomberg) — New York City’s unemployment rose a full percentage point to 9 percent last month, the second- biggest jump in the past 33 years after February’s record, according to state Labor Department data.
The jobless rate in the most populous U.S. city reached the highest since October 1997, while unemployment in New York state overall rose to a 16-year high of 8.2 percent in May, the department said today. Both were still below the national average of 9.4 percent last month.
“The city’s job market is still weak and the weakest areas, financial activities and professional and business
services, will not resume growth until after the national
economy improves,†James Brown, principal economist at the New York State Department of Labor, said in an e-mailed release.
The city’s unemployment rate was 5.1 percent a year ago.
Heather, what you write is true for the condo market.
But they’re not making any more brownstones.
“un-gentrified by renters.”
ennuiator…you better be all over her for that one. Heather, let me hold your baby before she gets hit with everything thrown at you!!!!! 🙂
I would assume there’s more downside to come because there just aren’t that many New Yorkers that make more than $300K a year and I’m not sure who else can afford this market. (Aside from people trading up, of course.) And yeah sure, I realize many people make a lot of money in this town. Just… a lot of those folk? Notsomuch. Recently.
There is a LOT of luxury, or marketed-as-luxury housing out there right now. Like, a lot. Maybe the correct model for Brooklyn in 19th-century Harlem? Overbuilt by speculators, and then un-gentrified by renters.