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If a certain bank analyst is to be believed, New York real estate has a long way to go still before reaching bottom. A Time article earlier this week cites a Deutsche Bank report predicting that housing prices in the New York metropolitan area will fall 40 percent from their March levels. The major driver of the bank’s estimate is an affordability index that shows New York is still relatively a very pricey place to shack up.
New York Home Prices Forecast to Drop 40% [Time]
Photo by tomodea


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  1. Perhaps, interesting. That second one has a good floor plan and could be cute if details such as trim and a more attractive door were added. Only trouble is the lack of space for both eating and sitting limit its usefulness as a family apartment. Though you could spend all summer eating outdoors if you redid the steps.

    Hannible, yes, higher interest rates should mean lower housing prices.

  2. Mopar please tell me again who is going to swoop in and buy like crazy when the fed starts raising rates to 4-5 percent? That will mean loans will have to be paid ay almost a 10 percent premium! Wait until this coming tuesday and watch if interest rates don’t start skyrocketing soon.

  3. ‘You can buy a 2 bedroom apt in Manhattan for $500,000? Really?’

    according to streeteasy, the answer is, even below 125th st, technically, yes – although most (if not all) carry a big asterisk of some kind. (of course, since Manhattan includes a hundred blocks north of 125th, if you take into account the entire island you can find plenty of stuff – but that’s no surprise to anyone, I would imagine)

    just considering things below the upper east/west side – here’s one. not great, but not bad at 420K, right? still, considering the size, not sure it’s a ‘true’ 2bdr:

    http://www.prudentialelliman.com/listings.ASpx?listingid=1089790&utm_source=Streeteasy&utm_campaign=corporate&utm_medium=listings

    this one even has (grim) outdoor space and a working fireplace:

    http://www.prudentialelliman.com/listings.ASpx?listingid=1115755&utm_source=Streeteasy&utm_campaign=corporate&utm_medium=listings

    (BTW, this is not meant as a bull or bear comment – I was just curious to see what the answer to the above question is – and thought I’d share what I found)

  4. You can buy a 2 bedroom apt in Manhattan for $500,000? Really?

    Hannible, if a four-floor townhouse renting for $2,000 per floor sells for less than $1.3 million, absentee landlord investors will swoop in and buy the place because they can make a profit renting.

    Floor-throughs do rent for $1700 to $3500 in the “prime” areas of Brooklyn. I’m not advocating it, I’m just making a factual statement.

    Where you and I live, the rents have fallen to $1400 or less, yes.

  5. Hey, DIBS, I’m a renter. More price declines don’t scare me — they make me much, much better about not buying for $250K in BedStuy in 2000 when I had the chance… okay, true, I’m still not sure if I want the curly-haired moppet to go to school there.

    But I also agree with the folk that say you can’t separate the condo/co-op market from the brownstone one… to some extent. The thing is, brownstones in “fringe” neighborhoods have fallen too far and they’re still falling. Wasn’t mopar looking at that place in Ocean Hill that was once 600K that is now 300k? (And which, by the way, I love… except for the Ocean Hill thing.)How much of a premium is a prime neighborhood worth? And then, once you figure that, how much are apartments going for in Manhattan again? $500K for 2 bedrooms? Lower? If your choice (again) becomes a palace in Manhattan for that million or a Brooklyn brownstone in Clinton Hill… well, me, I’d buy something for half that and stick the rest in an interest-bearing account, but for those that Want to spend that much… I think there’s more correction to come.

  6. Ladies and gents, the tale of the tape! (part2)

    In this corner we have the big boys (notice that they’re both bulls and bears on the economy),
    GS: 40-58% down
    T2: 45% down
    DB: 40%+ down
    Schiller: “US Home Prices May Fall for Years”
    MWhitney:”Prime Loan Defaults Have Only Begun”

    In this corner we have
    11217: Everythings ok because he owns a hole in the wall
    Dibs: Money manager who sweeps his ghetto floor for bitter renters.
    Mopar: This report “has zero to do with Brooklyn”

    Hahahhaha, where would you put your money?

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