Average Joes Giving Market a Heartbeat
Yesterday’s cover story in the NYT real estate section was downright encouraging, didn’t you think? The gist: There are a bunch of folks who have normal jobs with normal paychecks that have been patiently saving up in recent years as the real estate market zoomed beyond their reach who all of sudden are finding themselves…
Yesterday’s cover story in the NYT real estate section was downright encouraging, didn’t you think? The gist: There are a bunch of folks who have normal jobs with normal paychecks that have been patiently saving up in recent years as the real estate market zoomed beyond their reach who all of sudden are finding themselves in the position to buy sooner than they had imagined. And faced with the double-blessing of lower prices and lower interest rates, they are even able to afford bigger apartments than they thought. The meat-and-potatoes buyers are coming out right now, said Kristina Leonetti, a broker at the Corcoran Group. And you know what? They are out there actively looking (though maybe not in the Bronx). Confirming something that a senior member of a large brokerage firm told us last week, open houses have been well attended since the start of the new year. Any readers who fit this profile care to chime in?
For the Brave, the Moment Is Now [NY Times]
Photo by Amber Rhea on Flickr
Thats not what I was talking about jackass. I was talking about the ACTUAL returns over the past 10 years. That’s history. Pretty simple actually.
10:45…read it again.
ANd if you really think RE prices are “plummeting” here in NYC you’d better go look up the definition of plummeting
Christ, why do I continue to engage the loons???
“So tell us, BHO, exactly when will the market bottom??? Plus or minus a month.”
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again. When Case-Shiller YOY approaches zero. If you did this test for the previous collapses (80’s/90’s and recent) you’d be behind no more than 9 months on a bottom that has and will last for years. Damn good for RE.
***Bid half off peak comps***
“BHO you completely missed the point of the historic returns. Has nothing to do with one lagging the other. Shows how stupid you really are.”
Show me how smart you are and elaborate. What exactly did I miss? The decline of the stock market has run most of it’s course. RE is just getting started. For RE measurments, you’re taking shots at a moving (plummeting) target. Where did you previously mention the word “history” (maybe I missed that)?
***Bid half off peak comps***
It’s unknowable Miss Muffett. I’d say sometime late this year. But its like buying stocks…better to wait and miss the bottom and pay on the way up giving up the first part of the move and be more certain that you’re moving up.
But real estate is not like the stock market at all….as I tried to outline above. Real estate can be a home and nothing more, which is fine. It can also be an investment and a store of value. It’s long term and its done better than the stock market long term as my facts above would indicate.
Late this year, maybe early next year. It doesn’t matter unless you’re trying to call the bottom which, like I said, is impossible, an exercise in futility, and a fool’s game.
Civil disobediance and even race riots are possible, a terrorist attack to “test” the new president is possible, a tsunami is possible, why go on? I agree with Denton’s post that the City is in much better shape today than twenty or thirty years ago when the common wisdom was that big old cities like NY were “over”. There has been a huge reinvestment in the city’s housing stock by everyone: corporate moguls as well as civil servants, of every race. This makes the city much more resiliant. So let’s not drown in too little water. If real estate prices drop somewhat it would be a good thing by and large. I say this even though I own real estate and stand to lose, on paper, from a down market.
Well, DIBS, what’s *your* prediction re: market bottom?
Would love to track these predictions over the next few years…
Miss Muffett and BHO here advising sellers!!!! I’ve never seen anything more ludicrous.
ALSO…..
“The future is unknowable although there will always be those who claim they know what to expect. The reality is that no one knows for sure, including the experts.”
But you must choose a position. What’s yours?
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at January 19, 2009 3:34 PM
So tell us, BHO, exactly when will the market bottom??? Plus or minus a month.
“The future is unknowable although there will always be those who claim they know what to expect. The reality is that no one knows for sure, including the experts.”
But you must choose a position. What’s yours?
***Bid half off peak comps***
dibs, you’re right! I meant disobedience without the civil.