20 Clifton Place Sells, Kicks Widget's Ass
The widget underprices again! We’ve gotten used to the pricing widget being off by 10 to 15 percent, but in the case of 20 Clifton Place, a three-family in Clinton Hill that was on the market last spring for $899,000, it was off by 20 percent. The average reader prediction was for a selling price…
The widget underprices again! We’ve gotten used to the pricing widget being off by 10 to 15 percent, but in the case of 20 Clifton Place, a three-family in Clinton Hill that was on the market last spring for $899,000, it was off by 20 percent. The average reader prediction was for a selling price of $679,708 and the house closed on September 24 for $850,000. Quite a difference! Meanwhile next door, 22 Clifton Place, which never was a House of the Day, also closed last month for $1,200,000, quite a bit below what it was asking when it was an Open House Pick back in 2007 and in 2008.
House of the Day: 20 Clifton Place [Brownstoner] GMAP
I don’t agree that the fact that properties sell for a higher price than the average widget price indicates that widget users are undervaluing house/co-op/condo prices. In the real world, if the seller had to accept the average offer s/he received, then it would be an apples-to-apples comparison to look at the average widget price relative to the sales price. But the seller only has to accept the highest bid (by definition an outlying bid from the average offer s/he receives), so it makes sense that the average widget bid is below the sales price. Now, if the highest estimate on the widget was lower than the price the property actually sold for, then brownstoner would have underpriced the property.
Even before the widget, and even during the height of the boom, the overriding tendency of commenters on this site has been to underestimate or talk down the value of the house. I think there are a variety of reasons for the widget coming in low. One is that the sale price is the price paid by the person, of those in the market at the given time, who wants it most and is willing, therefore, to pay the most. By that definition, and according to rob, everyone overpays for their house in every market. But the market is made up of actual transactions, not others’ conjectures as to value. I could say all day that oil is only worth $50/barrel, but if the spot market is paying $60, that’s the market, no matter how skilled my analysis may be. But I also think there is no denying a bit of a grudge factor in the undervaluing on the widget. I would expect to see the constant in up and down markets.
WAY too many people put stupid low prices which brings down the average. I think if you take the data then chop off the high- and low-end outliers you may get a more accurate picture. But it does seem obvious that certain people are “scamming” the widget by putting the lowest possible price in each time regardless of the property.
“Taking applications for new members of Team Bull. Line starts over here to the right>>>>>>”
That’s also where the line ends.
***Bill Thompson for Mayor***
i’m confused — are readers using the appraisal widget to indicate:
(1) what they personally think the property is worth, or
(2) what they think the property will sell for?
if the purpose of the widget were explicitly (2), maybe it’d be more accurate? maybe there should be two widgets?
“20 Clifton Place Sells, Kicks Widget’s Ass”
Damn shoe shine boys.
Widget will knock it out in the first round during the rematch when the market bottoms.
How’s 51 Cambridge doing?
***Bill Thompson for Mayor***
M4L–thanks for the loyalty. We reasonable people need to stick together! haha.
DIBS, thanks for offering but I’m staying under Wasder’s Team Reasonable flag.
or maybe actually visiting a home rather than relying on the web is a significant part of the buying/pricing decision? duh! This 20 clifton came with no fotos…