20 Clifton Place Sells, Kicks Widget's Ass
The widget underprices again! We’ve gotten used to the pricing widget being off by 10 to 15 percent, but in the case of 20 Clifton Place, a three-family in Clinton Hill that was on the market last spring for $899,000, it was off by 20 percent. The average reader prediction was for a selling price…
The widget underprices again! We’ve gotten used to the pricing widget being off by 10 to 15 percent, but in the case of 20 Clifton Place, a three-family in Clinton Hill that was on the market last spring for $899,000, it was off by 20 percent. The average reader prediction was for a selling price of $679,708 and the house closed on September 24 for $850,000. Quite a difference! Meanwhile next door, 22 Clifton Place, which never was a House of the Day, also closed last month for $1,200,000, quite a bit below what it was asking when it was an Open House Pick back in 2007 and in 2008.
House of the Day: 20 Clifton Place [Brownstoner] GMAP
it’s because you’re polling is not entirely sample of people who can all actually afford these homes. if you want a more accurate result you need to poll people who are in a certain income bracket, looking for a home, have some knowledge about actually purchasing a home in brooklyn.
Bivouac,
Those changes are underway. Programmer’s been a little swamped, that’s all…
I think people favor their own neighborhoods and tastes on widget…so if not their ‘hood or style subtract 25%.
I think the widget reflects what posters here would offer, as opposed to the property’s market value or what someone is willing to pay for it.
Taking applications for new members of Team Bull. Line starts over here to the right>>>>>>
The widget displays very little predictive power when it comes to pricing. However, when it comes to gauging sentiment/confidence, this widget is highly predictive.
The widget seems to support a strong Bearish sentiment among Brownstoners. Since Brownstoners are supposed to know a little something about that which they speak, this would be like a ‘Smart Money’ indicator.
And right now, Smart Money, as represented by the consistent widget underpricing, is on the sidelines.
I thought we’d decided Brownstoner appraisers were spot on with the selling price being a constant of 1.2 times the widget price?
The wisdom of crowds is an oxymoron.
A couple of ideas for the widget, which might make it useful instead of just for laughs:
1: Don’t show the other votes until after someone has already voted. It skews the numbers.
2: Now that you have some data that shows the Brownstoner audience consistently under-values property, why not show two numbers: the avg. reader appraisal, and a second number that attempts to accurately guess the sale price based on the average percentage difference between appraisal and sale.
“Why is the Brownstoner crowd so consistently wrong when it comes to appraising properties?”
Because we aren’t property appraisers?