20 Clifton Place Sells, Kicks Widget's Ass
The widget underprices again! We’ve gotten used to the pricing widget being off by 10 to 15 percent, but in the case of 20 Clifton Place, a three-family in Clinton Hill that was on the market last spring for $899,000, it was off by 20 percent. The average reader prediction was for a selling price…
The widget underprices again! We’ve gotten used to the pricing widget being off by 10 to 15 percent, but in the case of 20 Clifton Place, a three-family in Clinton Hill that was on the market last spring for $899,000, it was off by 20 percent. The average reader prediction was for a selling price of $679,708 and the house closed on September 24 for $850,000. Quite a difference! Meanwhile next door, 22 Clifton Place, which never was a House of the Day, also closed last month for $1,200,000, quite a bit below what it was asking when it was an Open House Pick back in 2007 and in 2008.
House of the Day: 20 Clifton Place [Brownstoner] GMAP
I said six months later, ‘dope, not HOTD’s. The larger pool is more accurate.
You couldn’t have possibly went through the entire archive since 2005 and come up with that conclusion, ‘farm. I certainly don’t have the patience and time for that kind of legwork. But maybe you’re right.
***Bill Thompson for Mayor***
Actually, BHO, based on the overall tone of comments to HOTDs during 2005-06, if there had been a widget it would have underpriced then, too. “That’s way too high” led “it’ll go for ask’ by at least a 4-1 margin on this site, even during the boom. Go back into the archives and look at some HOTD threads from then and see if you think otherwise.
“As I and others have pointed out, the seller only needs to find one buyer, not the average of many buyers.”
Yup. If enacted at brownstoner’s launch, the widget average would have been overpricing. I too used to think the RE only went up (’til about 2005). It’s the “crowd”, aka ‘average of many buyers’, that eventually and ultimately moves the market. Team Reasonable is the underground railroad for former bulls (membership shrinks daily) who are now converting to bears (membership grows daily).
***Bill Thompson for Mayor***
actually wrong bho. of the first 21 hotd, 12 have sold and one is in contract. 5 have been pulled. 1 of the 3 remaining on the market is back on market after the contract broke. average price sold at 6% off ask and 16% above widget.
so that makes at least 12 pretty stupid buyers.
recall, this was april and the psychology was terrible.
so, it must be b) wait (at least) til next year for your half off sale.
“if the highest estimate on the widget was lower than the price the property actually sold for, then brownstoner would have underpriced the property.”
Good point, bkhabitant.
“Yes, it seems a crazy nutjob is purchasing nearly every available home in Brooklyn.”
I don’t know, ‘farm. 6 months later seems to average about 25% sold. That wouldn’t be “nearly every”. Maybe not crazy nutjob but definitely foolish. The market is going to get considerably worse. Even Robert Shiller himself, co-author of the Case-Shiller index, is calling more irrational exuberance in the stimulus bounce peddled in the media as recovery (I posted an article the other day from Yahoo Finance).
***Bill Thompson for Mayor***
slopefarm… Actually I think the ‘nutjobness’ of folks participating in the Brooklyn real estate market is quite systematically pervasive.
Median would be interesting, but probably more predictive would be something at 2/3 or 75% toward the high end of predictions. As I and others have pointed out, the seller only needs to find one buyer, not the average of many buyers.
So only -6%, m4l, while borough-wide, brownstones are about -20%. Congrats to the sellers. Good luck to the buyers.
fsrq did an okay job, 11217. It wasn’t substantial. Scary stuff in your article. But that’s what smear campaigns do. I respect Bloomberg’s record and I do think he’s a good leader. But he’s arrogant and I’ve had enough of him. Eight is enough!!! I’ll take my chances with Bill Thompson. Yes, I’m crazier than you thought.
Just a), ‘dope. I’m not timing the bottom, just calling it when I see it.
***Bill Thompson for Mayor***
It would be interesting to have the widget display the median and perhaps the range of results too. My guess is that the median might be a better predictor of the actual sale price in this type of poll.