Housing market

Over the past 3-4 decades, New York City RE values fall quite slowly after periods of economic decline — but sometimes for surprisingly long periods. Black Monday in 1987; the early 90s recession; the bursting of the dot com bubble in 2001; and of course the Great Recession. In all instances, RE prices didn’t fall immediately but took their own sweet time to hit bottom. It took until 2002 for NYC to get back to the 1987 peak. National variations are huge — every major city seems to have its own market. The resiliency, or otherwise, of the overall NYC economy will be the determining factor.

stoopsitter

in General Discussion 5 years and 2 months ago

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stuyheights | 5 years and 2 months ago

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What Is everyone’s thoughts the virus is going to have on the housing market, both sales and rentals? Immediately, short term and long term.

Guest User | 5 years and 2 months ago

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Short term it will have an effect but long term no effect.

cate | 5 years and 2 months ago

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People will try to close whatever deals were already in the works if they can but in the short run the employment situation is precarious for some. I would expect most people are staying put and not moving right now. Temporary measures such as business loans and mortgage and rent forbearance should help us all get through this without long-lasting damage, and things should come back when the quarantine is lifted. Financial analysts are currently saying the financial shock will be severe but short lived.

stuyheights | 5 years and 2 months ago

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With so many people out of work and the unemployment rate projected to skyrocket, I think it would be a legitimate concern for real estate investors and homeowners alike. I guess the fear would be the domino effect from 2007. Rent payments stop, homeowners and investors default, some put properties on the market for substantially less than market value in hopes of a quick sale to get liquid. So many people in Brooklyn have a fortune in equity, at least for the time being. I think it would be a hard argument to make to say this is not going to spill over to the housing market in some degree. Just how severe, who knows.

mr.-michael | 5 years and 2 months ago

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Yes this will definitely affect the industry. I am a broker at compass and we were all told to do showings, closings, etc virtually. You can now notarize virtually. So everyone is trying to make it easier for business to move forward. This is a public health crisis which has fueled an economic crisis- basically the less demand of consumption for consumers and what a large part of GDP it is. and while the buyers and sellers are still out there, there is a lot of opportunity right now for getting a deal. For sellers, their assets might sell 10-15% lower than usual. Some sellers are more panicky and some who maybe are a bit more pragmatic and say, I don’t care if I lose a few dollars. I’d rather just get a deal done and closed. For 99%, the answer is do nothing and wait until you have more information.

On a hopeful note, Chinese ports are operating at 85% of what their normal is. That’s up from 70% last week. Chinese purchases, ex autos are up to 75% of what they were before. Chinese activity in home buying is up to almost those levels.

The volume of cash that has be en sitting on the sidelines for the last 24 months, stating clearly that, “Asset prices are way too high. We’re waiting for a correction.” This is the correction for that cash to be deployed. This is what these people have been waiting for, and they have billions and billions if not trillions of dollars waiting to do so. That, to me, leads me to believe that while they may be in a big wave of bargains, I don’t think the depth of those bargains will be the same as 2008-2009, because the cash volume right now, from what I know, is exceptional.

If you want to talK more about the market and the possibilities, you can reach out to me at ronit.abraham@compass.com.
Stay safe everyone!

resident2 | 5 years and 2 months ago

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Interest rates are very low. Yes many will not be able to get a mortgage especially if they are in a business that may well not be hiring for a while.
Many buyers will be sheepish, many will take the opportunity to buy while others sit in a quandary.
Agents that have not been through a major confidence adjustment in the market will not make any sales….. This is all short term stuff.
Being an election year, just like all election years will mean many will sit out of the market waiting to see if it will be Democrats or more of the same… Long term, the election will have more of an adjustment to the market.
So long as home buyers buy at a rate of being equal to renting: meaning if the effective cost per month to buy does not cost more than it would cost to rent, any buyer long term will be fine…. so yes the over priced properties will keep having to make price adjustments.
The rental market will pick up to accommodate all the nervous buyers & the potential buyers that now cannot get a mortgage due to employment instability.
Some landlords will have to carry some tenan ts for a while, the rent laws will change back to help landlords etc…. it will all just keep going round swings & roundabouts with slides here & there.
The bottom line; if you can buy, BUY! Just close your ears to all babble.

daveinbedstuy | 5 years and 2 months ago

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Are law offices and title companies even open????

Guest User | 5 years and 2 months ago

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Title companies yes – law offices I am not sure about

yudashasom | 5 years and 2 months ago

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Closings, the ones that are still on can be done remotely/by mail. The real issue right now is if the clerks office closes. Mortgages and deeds can’t be recorded, and title companies are still trying to figure that out, and that’s a real problem.

stuyheights | 5 years and 2 months ago

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I am a mortgage banker and it is crazy on our side. Rates are skyrocketing, there are no buyers for mortgage backed securities, the fed stepped in and purchased about 50 billion THIS WEEK and didn’t even put in a dent. I expect guideline changes soon as well. TD bank is the largest renovation lender and they stopped the entire program. All the non-QM loans that were entering the marketplace, gone. I have an investment property that I am in the middle of fixing up that I planned on renting and wondering if I should sell instead.

Guest User | 5 years and 2 months ago

string(1) "3"
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Selling would be just as difficult as renting it out right now. I think renting it out is a better option.

Guest User | 5 years and 2 months ago

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@no-permitz Can mortgages/deeds be recorded digitally?

yudashasom | 5 years and 2 months ago

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No they can’t be recorded digitally – the documents need to be originals

cate | 5 years and 2 months ago

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(By the way no-permitz if you are reading: We did not delete your comments in that story on the blog a few days ago. See the story for details. — signed, the management.)

yudashasom | 5 years and 2 months ago

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@cate – thanks