OK, with apologies to all, I am going to weigh in on the concurrent birthday probability question.
First, Benson is correct that finding a poisson distribution is an alternate method for finding the solution. But that doesn’t help much. Lets see what we can understand without ANY math.
First Step: Understand the precise question posed. Always a good idea, but so often overlooked. What is the probability that in a group of people a pair of people will have the same birthday?
So the answer is going to be in terms of a pair. You will have to know how many pairings are possible, being careful not to double count. (ie Lech/Benson is the same pair as Benson/Lech). Also this tells us the first data point will be for a group of two people. Intuitively, we know that the chance of any two people having the same birthday is low.
Step Two: What are the facts/ What are the assumptions.
1. There are 365 days in a year. Actually wrong because of Leap Years.
2. The exact same number of people are born on each day of the year. I have no idea if this is true. However if it is true, out of a group of 367 people there is 100% probability that 2 will have the same birthday. If not true then the problem is way more difficult.
3. There are no twins allowed
Step Three: What would the answer reasonably look like:
At the first data point, a single pair, the probability is low.
Lets make 50% probability the next data point. We gewt there pretty quickly so we can draw a near vertical line on the graph
At 90% probability, the line curves around to nearly horizontal. We know that this number is pretty far above the 50% mark, but also less than the maximum. So are graph is now curving dramatically toward a horizontal line.
At 100% probability, the line is completely horizontal.
CONCLUSION: We pretty much can figure out in a general sense everything about this without doing a single, tedious factorial.
Voila!
(Apologies to all who are bored to tears by now. Hope that is not the entire Plusa population.)
I am a Unitarian Unilateralist. Not to get into too much theology, the religion does not have a creed or dogma, but instead has common principals. Its roots are Protestant, but the religion really stopped being Christian a century ago.
There is a wide range of believe systems in the church, with atheist/agnostic/humanist probably being the biggest.
Kind of hard to explain, even though I have been a practicing member for 7 years.
The services are church-y, but the sermons are all over the place.
Good one, DeLepp. But they increased the probability of finding each other by attending a conference for transgendered people who had given birth as women before becoming men.
Cool, thanks, Scott.
mine fall more in line with satanism. one of the few religions where people truly have fun! they can be very scary tho
*rob*
i think my beliefs are more in line with islam than any other religious sect.
Jessi what you are describing are unitarians.
OK, with apologies to all, I am going to weigh in on the concurrent birthday probability question.
First, Benson is correct that finding a poisson distribution is an alternate method for finding the solution. But that doesn’t help much. Lets see what we can understand without ANY math.
First Step: Understand the precise question posed. Always a good idea, but so often overlooked. What is the probability that in a group of people a pair of people will have the same birthday?
So the answer is going to be in terms of a pair. You will have to know how many pairings are possible, being careful not to double count. (ie Lech/Benson is the same pair as Benson/Lech). Also this tells us the first data point will be for a group of two people. Intuitively, we know that the chance of any two people having the same birthday is low.
Step Two: What are the facts/ What are the assumptions.
1. There are 365 days in a year. Actually wrong because of Leap Years.
2. The exact same number of people are born on each day of the year. I have no idea if this is true. However if it is true, out of a group of 367 people there is 100% probability that 2 will have the same birthday. If not true then the problem is way more difficult.
3. There are no twins allowed
Step Three: What would the answer reasonably look like:
At the first data point, a single pair, the probability is low.
Lets make 50% probability the next data point. We gewt there pretty quickly so we can draw a near vertical line on the graph
At 90% probability, the line curves around to nearly horizontal. We know that this number is pretty far above the 50% mark, but also less than the maximum. So are graph is now curving dramatically toward a horizontal line.
At 100% probability, the line is completely horizontal.
CONCLUSION: We pretty much can figure out in a general sense everything about this without doing a single, tedious factorial.
Voila!
(Apologies to all who are bored to tears by now. Hope that is not the entire Plusa population.)
I am a Unitarian Unilateralist. Not to get into too much theology, the religion does not have a creed or dogma, but instead has common principals. Its roots are Protestant, but the religion really stopped being Christian a century ago.
There is a wide range of believe systems in the church, with atheist/agnostic/humanist probably being the biggest.
Kind of hard to explain, even though I have been a practicing member for 7 years.
The services are church-y, but the sermons are all over the place.
Dave, Pia steals paper money. She makes piles under the head of the bed and sleeps on it. $100 bills seem to be her favorite. High maintenance bitch.
someone is gonna shoot that cat.
Good one, DeLepp. But they increased the probability of finding each other by attending a conference for transgendered people who had given birth as women before becoming men.