Fourth Quarter Saw Biggest GDP Decline in 26 Years
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The U.S. economy suffered its biggest slowdown in 26 years in the last three months of 2008, according to the government’s first reading about the fourth quarter released Friday. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation’s economic activity, fell at an annual rate of 3.8% in the fourth quarter,…
I’m amazed by the complacency, but first –Dave, you say in one breath not to guess at a date/number on the Dow, in the next breath do precisely that. Odd.
The GDP number is massively jiggered thanks to an inventory adjustment –the real number is over 5% annualized, and this will get revised higher.
We’re in a full-on stagdeflation –the numbers you bulls toss out on the Dow are preposterous unless you are talking four or five years out. This is all guesswork, but a six handle wouldn’t surprise me at some point in ’09.
ps The real estate market is dead going forward –this is the last round of bonuses, maybe forever –the i-bank business model is dead for a generation, and btw, if you’re a bankster listening in, by being so criminally venal in the short run (in your genes, I know) you screwed yourself in the long run –memories of ’08 bonus rounds are going to last a looooong time.
yeah, DIBS. just posted bail. good one. hehe. don’t quit your dayjob, or whatever you call this.
now, to the topic. i’m not an economist, but rosenberg (who has been very spot on so far) is basically calling depression right now. historic range for duration is 3-7 years. we are a little over 1 year in so far. predicting market levels is pretty futile because even the “experts” can’t do it in this environment. bottom line is that the economy is going through massive deleveraging at the moment (DIBS excluded) and there are trillions left to go. the government “bailout” is a drop in the bucket, so it may have a marginal positive effect, but not enough to stop the train. if you hitched your wagon to nyc real estate as a near-to-mid-term wealth generator recently, best of luck to you.
lechacal – if the overall RE market goes down 25-40% then Brownstones in those same neighborhoods will go do commensurate as well – that has always happened (both up and down) and always will. Sure there are individual units (both apartments and brownstones) that are so unique that they will hold up better BUT if you really think about it – they probably would have fetched more that “the market” during the boom – therefore again – housing within neighborhoods tend to move together.
I think if the Stock Market made it through this week pretty much unscathed despite the HUGE amount of bad news reported, this may be the bottom of the stock market.
Just my guess. It stayed relatively flat this week despite some really, really poor numbers all around.
Also, fsrq: This renter does not wishfully think that prime park slope brownstones will hold their value. I wishfully think that someday I will own one, but I am simply not in the position to do so at the moment. I am in the market for those prime area condos that will go down 25% – 40%.
fsrq: I am increasingly of the view that prime brownstones in the best areas of the Slope are not going to fall with the market (actual selling prices, not discount to ask). You will note that the rest of my views on NYC real estate are quite bearish.
Yoo Hoo Retards! I will post this story around! The collapse of the Mutant Asset Bubble keeps getting better! Hey Retards suck this down…
Bloomberg To Announce Bare-Bones, Doomsday Budget
Slew Of New Taxes On Tap, Higher Fees For Services, Plastic Bag Charge; City Workforce To Lose 23,000 Jobs
http://wcbstv.com/breakingnewsalerts/nyc.budget.mayor.2.921808.html
“After sharpening his red pencils and spending long nights squeezing the treasury for every penny, Mayor Michael Bloomberg is set to tell New Yorkers that the budget for the next year will be excruciatingly painful.”
Someone should ask this Asshat “What happen to all of the revenue from the Mutant Asset Bubble years”! All the money from Transfer Taxes, Building Permits, High Assed Parking Tickets and Car Towing Extortion!
“There’ll be fewer police officers, firefighters, sanitation workers and teachers in the bare-bones, doomsday budget to be announced at noon on Friday. ”
Well here comes the crime! this is what happens when you make these kind of cuts!
“Wall Street and the spiraling out of control economy have dealt New York City a bad hand. The mayor has no trumps to play as he lays out a spending plan whose gap has grown nearly 400 percent in three months.
Shrinking tax revenues have turned the $1.3 billion November budget hole into a now-$4 billion chasm. ”
Buh Bye retards! Nice knowing ya..
The What
Someday this war is gonna end…
It doesn’t matter if it stays there or not. You reevaluate your positions all the time. If it looks like it might stay or go higher GIVEN THE ECONOMIC NUMBERS AT THAT POINT, then you stay.
the chicken….what are you going to do in the mean time?? If you’re short now and it does go to 11,000 then YOU are screwed.
lechal all your predictions make some sense – except that all RE will be down 25-40% but somehow prime Brooklyn Brownstones will be flat – besides the fact that already isnt the case – your wishful thinking does not compute with any rational look at the RE market.