Fourth Quarter Saw Biggest GDP Decline in 26 Years
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The U.S. economy suffered its biggest slowdown in 26 years in the last three months of 2008, according to the government’s first reading about the fourth quarter released Friday. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation’s economic activity, fell at an annual rate of 3.8% in the fourth quarter,…
It might hit 11,000 but will it stay there????
Frankly though 3.8% (even assuming later downward revision) is really not that bad – we had major bank failures, never ending gloom from our leaders, credit tightening, a stock market crash and a continued housing crash.
Compared to 1982 we have low interest rates, lower unemployment and major Govt spending on tap.
I agree with DIBS on the direction of equity markets. I have been buying all the way down (starting in August or September) and intend to continue to do so (the key to this strategy is to never blink).
I think January 2010 is too near term for a meaningful prediction. I pick January 2011 and predict the following, obviously with some margin for error:
– Dow: At least 12000
– S&P: At least 1200
– Unemployment: Still high nationally, but trending down. Persistently high in NYC due to major and permanent changes in securities, banking and asset management industries.
– Case Schiller: Past bottom, rising nationally
– Manhattan real estate market: 25-40% below peak prices and still falling, or at best stabilizing
– Prime brooklyn brownstones (within 2 blocks of Prospect Park in the slope, for example): Basicall at peak prices
– Prime brooklyn coops/condos and fringe brooklyn brownstones: Prices down 20% – 40% from peak and stabilizing
– Fringe Brooklyn condos: Prices down 40% – 50%.
Dow = 6500
S&P = 600
What are your numbers, chicken? If you say 10,999 and 1,099, I would put you on team bull. So what’s your call?
“Between now and January, 2010 the Dow will hit at least 11,000 and the S&P over 1,100.”
DIBS, I’ll take the other side of that for Team Bear.
Thanks for putting it out there, what, and for going first. I know racist cookies were a real story and I deplore the cookies and the baker. There are real jerks in the world who do real racist things. You are right to be outraged about it, as were many customers. I thought it nuts, however, that you tried to pin some blame for the cookies on the readership of this site.
Between now and January, 2010 the Dow will hit at least 11,000 and the S&P over 1,100. Position now yourself to make AT LEAST 20% in the market.
Reevaluate positions after that.
To try and focus on where any particular number is at any particular date is foolhardy. You have to rethink what you are trying to accomplish to make any money.
1 year
-Unemployment 15%
-S&P 500 or lower
-Dow 6000 or lower
-Case-Schiller Major pain!!
-Going price of a (name your hood) brownstone Asshat Hill on life support
-Going price of a new Williamsburg high rise 2 BR 1100 sf -condo 350k
– GDP – 9.5 %
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
BTW slopefarm acist cookies from another borough is a real story!
OK, the economic debate here is really, really inane. We need some metrics. Bad news, team bear says I told you so. Uptick in the market, team bear is awfully quiet (or finds something else to rant about like racist cookies from another borough), team bull quietly sniffs its brandy with smug self-satisfaction. Team bear, team bull, put up some predictions today for 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years from now.
-Unemployment
-S&P
-Dow
-Case-Schiller
-Going price of a (name your hood) brownstone
-Going price of a new Williamsburg high rise 2 BR 1100 sf -condo
– GDP
etc.
Plus specific recommendations as to what investors should do, or even better, what you plan to do:
Buy, sell or hold Brooklyn real estate, stocks, bonds, treasuries, commodities, etc.
We all know we are in a recession. No one is arguing to the contrary. The argument is about what the future holds — how severe and for how long and when, how (or even if) it will turn around. We need something to go back and visit at various intervals to gave the merits of each team’s (or individual’s) arguments. Debating the economy every day based on each day’s news is like debating global warming based on the daily high temperature in Prospect Park. So, who is ready to put themselves out there with some numbers?