Fourth Quarter Saw Biggest GDP Decline in 26 Years
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The U.S. economy suffered its biggest slowdown in 26 years in the last three months of 2008, according to the government’s first reading about the fourth quarter released Friday. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation’s economic activity, fell at an annual rate of 3.8% in the fourth quarter,…
WOW, BHO. Is your criteria that a stock is cheap that it sells for $5-10 per share????? Now I know you’ve really got no clue.
Screw time. The implosion is on nobody’s schedule. It’s a process, not an event. The NY Case-Killa index does not lie. When its month to month YOY approaches zero, you will see your top or bottom in the rearview mirror no later than a year (see my analysis on the index from the thread on the topic a few days ago). Damn good for slow ass RE.
Buy historically performing but currently battered stocks cheap, like no more than $5 to $10 per share. You risk being wiped out but that’s the price for reward if it comes. Scared money don’t make none (if you pass on buying cheap).
Only a greentech bubble (sucker the winners of the zero sum MARB game into redistributing their newfound wealth back to the losers – unlikely) and/or War will bring us out of this depression.
***Bid half off peak comps***
we’re a far cry from the days of people sleeping on sidewalks to get first dibs on preconstruction.
http://www.youwalkaway.com
“…did you know my house appreciated 15,000 this morning?”
LOL. Very loud.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Still long gold.
As long as there’s continued “quantitative easing” where governments continue to print money, gold will go up. IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH INFLATION.
denton – my predictions are on a two year clock.
Historically, equity markets have rebounded well in advance of recovery in the broader economy.
There are lots of 3-bed condos and coops that I have seen in the past few years in the $1.2 – $1.4 asking range. I think I will be able to pick one of them up for about $800k to $900k in the next couple of years.
Thanks fsrq.
I’m w DIBS and lechecal on the markets… 20% bounce this year.
Unemployment peaks around 10%, probably under.
Houses in prime nabes max 20% hit, 20-30% elsewhere, crap condos 30-40%, the few interesting ones, 20%.
Oil $60 bbl by the end of the year, maybe more. I’m playing that with my own money.
Gold could go either way but I’m keeping a bit in as a hedge. With the rush to devalue currencies, gold could soar, also if inflation unexpectedly picks up.
Better grade high yield and corporate bonds will do very well in 2009.
tinarina – 1st disabuse yourself of this notion that new condos are crap due to poor construction. They very well might be – but ‘crap construction’ can just as easily be remedied (maybe even easier) then repairing and maintaining 75-150yr old houses and buildings. Therefore other than personal taste – there is no functional difference between the two.
Now in terms of the market – yes you have alot of inventory of new condos coming on-line – so that may depress that housing type for a year or two – until it is sold or rented BUT remember a few things
– there are still FAR FAR more brownstones in neighborhoods like Park Slope/Ft Greene/Brooklyn Heights then condo units even including what is still on the drawing board.
-Most people care about things like neighborhood, schools, commute, etc… at least as much as the housing “type” – otherwise Brownstones in the Bronx would cost similar to Brownstones in Park Slope. Therefore alot of people who may “want” a pre-war housing unit would choose a post-war condo if the discount was 25-40% less.
-As financing gets harder and more expensive – the higher your mortgage the more expensive and more difficult to secure. Therefore buying a 3M brownstone gets much more difficult. and yes of course in poorly sold new condos you will also have trouble getting financing.
-If all these new condos result in more rentals – the value of the Brownstone rental falls (competition) and therefore the affordability/value of the house falls commensurate.
Look there are ten thousand ways to look at it – and I know many people here are such lovers of Brownstones that they do not want to recongnize it – but housing (of similar size) is more or less substitutable and any look at history will show that housing within neighborhoods falls more or less in tandem – albeit with brief periods (as in all markets) where pricing gaps develop and are quickly plugged by people who take ‘arbitrage’ these gaps.