Where and When Will The Market Bottom?
Most people interviewed in this weekend Times article about New York’s real estate market finding its bottom seem to agree that prices so far have come down about 25 percent; how much further they have to fall is a matter of more varied opinion, though it sounds like 10 or 15 percent would be a…
Most people interviewed in this weekend Times article about New York’s real estate market finding its bottom seem to agree that prices so far have come down about 25 percent; how much further they have to fall is a matter of more varied opinion, though it sounds like 10 or 15 percent would be a consensus range. Which means we could be closer to the bottom than past cycles would suggest. Even if the New York market were to end up being 35 to 45 percent down, he said, to the degree we’re seeing deals done at 30 to 32 percent down anyway, it’s not very far away. What may happen, some speculate, is that the correction, however brutal, could be accelerated into a shorter time period that last go-round. It’s possible that rather than seeing price declines spread out over a six-year period, this time it could be concentrated in a two-year period, said Ingrid Gould Ellen, co-director of the Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy at NYU’s School of Law. That possibility, along with the fact that there are plenty of folks waiting in the wings wanting to buy, has the brokerage community cautiously optimistic that the real estate business may avoid having a lost decade. After all, what broker’s need to get paid are transactions more than high prices.
Looking for Bottom in N.Y. Real Estate [NY Times]
Photo by simplerich
I totally agree with you on that school of thought, christopher. I didn’t “have to” move to Brooklyn. I actually did it quite impulsively. I had only been to Brooklyn once before that in 1995!!!! I said it was time fopr a change, I want a big house and a big yard and I had coincidentally gone to a baptism at the church at the top of Throop and I realized that Bed Stuy was no longer what I thought it may have been. Bought a place a month later!!!!
Just figure’d I’d toss it out there DIBS…
… I’m of the “when you are ready to buy, want to buy, and you find a place you love and can afford, you buy, regardless of the market” school of thought.
Just curious about the “waiting for the bottom” people and their view of what they’ll do if they miss the bottom, or it never hits their idea of bottom.
All of a sudden I’m getting a warm feeling deep inside from WHAT and BOH. I the Asshat moved into Brooklyn in 1954 and haven’t lived anywhere else. Is it true that WHAT lives in Lodi, NJ?
Miss Muffet;
I’m sorry to hear about your extended family’s losses, and wish you the best.
I think one thing you should take into consideration is that home prices in NYC were essentially flat from 1991 to about 2001. Moreover, in the period of 1988 to 1991, home prices declined by about 20%. So, while I agree that the price escalation from 2002 to 2008 was quite high and overdone, it may not be as accelerated as you present in the 10-year snapshot.
You are a good sport,and I wish you and your family only the best in your quest.
Jebby;
Congratulatons on your purchase. Welcome to the neighborhood, and enjoy your new home. Don’t let anyone get you down. Please stick around!
Don’t expect an intelligent answer to that one, christopher.
Here’s a question to those of you “waiting to buy until the prices fall 50%+”
,
What happens if the prices don’t ever fall 50,60, or 70%?
Are those of you waiting for those price drops just never going to buy?
And if you truly want to buy and are willing to adjust your metric, at what point is that? If they drop 30% but then start climbing again are you willing to buy 25% off becuase you waited to long for 30%?
Or are you going to not buy just because it didn’t hit 50% off?
And what if it does it 50%? Will you really buy or will you decide to wait until 60%?
Now now, don’t confuse whiney and whinny.
I didn’t buy anything. I don’t know if I was too smart or seeing the bailout for loosers that are homeowners I sort of think I was stupid. I am waiting for home prices to go down another 60-70 percent and then start to think about it. I would like to buy but you still see the same faces in the real estate business. Not only banks are suppose to go bankrupt but also real estate agents. It was their sweet talk that started the market ninja bubble.
” but the fear tactics of Team Bull are just as objectionable to me as the callous glee of some members of Team Bear. ”
Whoa whoa whoa… I’m sooooooo sorry that I’m not feeling magnanimous toward the Assheads, Asshats and dumbasses who got caught up in the Kool-Aid of the Mutant Asset Bubble! hey you know what, I had to head that crap for years (RE never goes down) and other nonsense! Now you want me to feel *COUGH* sorry for those retards???
I say Feck ’em let them all lose everything so we can get back to normal business environments….
The What (Taste the rainbow)
Someday this war is gonna end..