U.S. Seeing a 'Second Surge of Home Sales'?
Yesterday the National Association of Realtors released its pending home sales index for February, and the report indicates that the national real estate market was doing surprisingly well a couple months ago. The index rose 8.2 percent nationwide in February as compared to January, and it was up 17.3 percent year-over-year. Here in the Northeast…
Yesterday the National Association of Realtors released its pending home sales index for February, and the report indicates that the national real estate market was doing surprisingly well a couple months ago. The index rose 8.2 percent nationwide in February as compared to January, and it was up 17.3 percent year-over-year. Here in the Northeast the index was up 9 percent over January and 18.9 percent over February 2009. According to the Times, analysts had predicted the index would stay flat in February. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR, said the index’s jump may signal the early stages of a second surge of home sales,” with the first-time buyer tax credit bolstering the market as it did last fall. Although it’s a bit of good news, home prices nationally are generally static, and foreclosures continue to rise.
Sharp Rise in Home Sales in February [NY Times]
Pending Home Sales Index [NAR]
Index image from NAR.
Ironballs – I only rented 1 apartment since April 1st. It took about 10 days to rent. Things might be worse now but I won’t be in the market again till the next lease is up on May 1st (unless the tenant wants to renew)…so ill find out then.
The reason I am optimistic is because I have 2 tenants who ask me often if I have any apartments available for their friends and 1 tenant who left NY a few years ago called me asking me to let her know as soon as I have a place available.
I price my apartments slightly below market…maybe that has something to do with it.
“but it is a long way off” – DCB @ 1:34
Why? Fed’s not buying anymore MBS’s. $8K tax credit will die after this month (didn’t matter anyway). FHA loan program will have to be bailed but with what? FASB is closing in on mark-to-fantasy accounting. Banks won’t lend enough because THEY know what’s in their wallet (rising mortgage deliquencies). Greece will go bankrupt or separate from the EU. Other PIGS are suffering from the same threat. The coverup can’t last forever.
“This recession will be declared over and Bernake will be hailed as a genius before any real damage will be done.” – DCB @ 1:34
The damage is already done. It leaked after Lehman collapsed but they patched it up with TARP, other programs and mark-to-fantasy accounting. Patches are not permanent fixes. The losses are being hidden from us until they can’t. Cash eventually has to flow.
“What else to explain the recent improvements without regard for economic reality like (debt/gdp ratios and national debt and pending forclosure numbers).” – Legion @ 1:50
Watch ‘The Smartest Guys in the Room’.
landlord – Enjoy your strong interest while it lasts. I just found out that my rent will not be increased this year. Funny, the only strong interest I see is from landlords. 30 day free trial @ Avalon – unheard of.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Landlord, it’s incredible you’re still seeing strong interest considering all the new rental housing that’s flooding Brooklyn. Every landlord I know is experiencing the same issues I am. Did you rent anything April 1st? I did, but it wasn’t easy.
I’m not saying, I can’t rent apartments. I’m just saying that demand is weak compared to the same time last year and especially compared to the bubble days. Of course for an abnormally low rent, it’s easy to find somebody.
I’d rather not go into specifics on my own properties, but location is definitely not the issue.
Ironballs – where is your property? I have a 6 family in center slope and have not noticed a lack of interest.
Glad I sold in ’08, not anxious to get back into RE and especially now when I’d be holding a depreciating asset. Listen to the “experts” who declare we’ve hit bottom at your own peril.
IronBalls, didn’t you read your David Brooks today? We are the best nation on earth, and we are all millionaires!
I’m a landlord in NYC.
The rental market is much worse than this time last year.
Rents are down and demand is weak.
Nothing has improved. Journalists grab a random statistic and claim everything has changed.
Things have gotten worse not better.
Once the government handouts end, a fire-sale will take place unlike any we’ve seen in our life times.
DCB and BHO,
I believe the “second bounce” will come from without not within. Our economy is running on the sheer power of the “faith and good will of the United States of America”.
What else to explain the recent improvements without regard for economic reality like (debt/gdp ratios and national debt and pending forclosure numbers).
We still have enough clout to sustain us because the world is not so quick to turn it’s back on the power of this nation and the US dollar.
An event like the bursting of a China bubble or failure of another EU state or an attack on Iran could finally start the international domino’s falling.
Unfortunately, this doesn’t have the feel of 80’s, 90’s or 00’s recoveries.
BHO:
I agree there will be a second wave–but it is a long way off.
This recession will be declared over and Bernake will be hailed as a genius before any real damage will be done.
Even the housing market will be on the mend before we hit the top of this economic cycle. Look for thew Gurus to be using words like “miracle” and “Goldilocks” then head for the hills!!!!!!