bulls-ass-0410.jpgThe program that saw the Federal Reserve pump more than a trillion dollars into the purchase of mortgage-backed securities came to an end yesterday. The Fed’s purchases helped drive rates on 30-year mortgages down from over 6 percent when the program started in early 2009 to under five percent last month. Susan M. Wachter, professor of real estate and finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, called the program the single most important move to stabilize the economy and to prevent a debacle.” The big question now is, Where do rates go from here?
Fed Ends Its Purchasing of Mortgage Securities [NY Times]


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  1. Bold call there, BHO. Where were you and your infinite wisdom in 2006 when you’d actually have been on to something?
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    ummmm…. do you know what bho’s previous screen name was? it was his previous prediction. came to pass yes it did.

  2. “Can someone please help me understand what happenes when inerest rates go to 10% and someone has a mortgage rate locked at 5%”

    Nothing, hannible. The guy with the 5% fixed pays his bills and feels like a big swinging dick. I don’t get the question.

  3. He’s been on this kick for only 18 months? That’s classic.

    18 months ago is post-Lehman and well post CS turning red … so this genius comes in and predicts doomsday _after_ the horse is already out of the barn?

    Bold call there, BHO. Where were you and your infinite wisdom in 2006 when you’d actually have been on to something?

  4. Yes, be rude, he’s been on this kick for 18 months now and all economic sindicators and the stock market have proven him wrong. And yes, you’re right, the CS for NYC Single Families has bottomed and we’ve had 2 months of POSITIVE 20 City M-O-M numbers!!!!

  5. >> Now, exactly what have I been proven wrong about? That brownstones or apartment sales will not be half off peak? It remains to be seen.

    In some sense, true … but so far every reasonable indication is you’re wrong. The data is definitely trending against you.

    Convenient thing about sweeping predictions: when they don’t come true you can always fall back on stuttering around a bit and saying crap like “um, well, I haven’t been proven wrong YET… it could still happen … just wait … push back the timetable a bit more … you’ll see”

    >> I’ll be bullish when NY Case-Shiller YOY turns green (20-city composite too but NY Metro lags the rest of the nation).

    So I guess we should expect you’ll turn bullish in a mere few weeks? What is NY Case-Shiller YOY now, like -0.3%? Where is the composite YOY? These data are a cunt hair away from turning green, with a clear trend in place … get ready to join the much-maligned “bullpen” pretty soon!

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