The Fed Puts Away Its Checkbook
The program that saw the Federal Reserve pump more than a trillion dollars into the purchase of mortgage-backed securities came to an end yesterday. The Fed’s purchases helped drive rates on 30-year mortgages down from over 6 percent when the program started in early 2009 to under five percent last month. Susan M. Wachter, professor…
The program that saw the Federal Reserve pump more than a trillion dollars into the purchase of mortgage-backed securities came to an end yesterday. The Fed’s purchases helped drive rates on 30-year mortgages down from over 6 percent when the program started in early 2009 to under five percent last month. Susan M. Wachter, professor of real estate and finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, called the program the single most important move to stabilize the economy and to prevent a debacle.” The big question now is, Where do rates go from here?
Fed Ends Its Purchasing of Mortgage Securities [NY Times]
DIBS How does it fel to have a 700 pound Gorilla on your back all day? You keep walking while the gorilla keeps humping you!
stop being so rude
>> Whether or not I’m making money in the bear market has nothing to do with whether I’m right about “half off”!
I don’t trust anyone who espouses a viewpoint but doesn’t put skin in the game to back it up. Makes me think they don’t fully trust what they’re saying. In life, pay attention to what folks do, not what they say. And what you’re doing doesn’t really jibe with what you say.
True, ultimately it doesn’t have anything to do with whether you’re right, but it does say alot about the conviction you have. Whether you’re ultimately proven right or not, why should anyone listen to you now if you don’t have conviction…
BHO, you’re right that -0.3% is a MoM #, not YoY as I incorrectly stated earlier.
Other than that tidbit, seems you’re viewing this data through some seriously skewed lenses.
Putting NY aside for a moment, as you say “NY Metro lags the rest of the nation”, the CS 10 city is already back up to 0% YoY (and the 20 is at -0.7% YoY). If one simply graphs the composite index data, the trend is smooth and clear as day: the indices are poised to turn positive imminently. Frankly, it is incomprehensible how anyone can look at a graph of CS composite YoY change and conclude home prices are poised to crash in any meaningful way.
As to your simplistic analysis of NY MoM changes “shaping” the YoY data to come, well let’s just say your HS math teacher wouldn’t be impressed.
It’s not just whether the monthly data is “red” or “green”, magnitude matters. Other than Nov ’09 (and there are reasons for that specific datapoint), the MoM declines since September are pretty darn close to zero. How does this matter? Assume, for the sake of argument, that NY MoM continues to run at -0.3% in Feb and March 2010 (a big bad “red” number as you’d have it…), that would put the Mar 2010 reading at 170.24. Compare that with March ’09 (173.60), and we’d have a YoY of -1.93%. Fits kind of nicely in the trend of NY YoY numbers movingly steadily up towards 0%. So how do some small “red” MoM readings “shape” the trend in your favor?? Oh right, they don’t…
Oh for whatever is going to happen to happen so we can move beyond this weekly foodfight.
“he was right but…he was right but…he was right but…he was right but…he was right but…he was right but…he was right but…”
ROTFLMMFAO!
“I’m not wrong. I have the numbers on Bloomberg.”
Oh yeah? Well those numbers above came from the S&P website, you know the guys who actually run the index. They’re quite negative.
Whether or not I’m making money in the bear market has nothing to do with whether I’m right about “half off”!
Nice switcheroo.
***Bid half off peak comps***
I’m not wrong. I have the numbers on Bloomberg.
“push back the timetable a bit more” – be rude
What timetable? Like I said before, there’s no deadline for the collapse. It’s a process, not an event.
Yes, YOY trends against me AGAIN like it did from May 08 to Aug 08. But what happened after that? It turned back down again. What do think is going to happen now that the FED has “put away its checkbook”, the tax credit gets pulled (didn’t work anyway) and all the stockpiled preforeclosures get marked to market?
NY Data
MON-YR, READING, MOM, YOY
Jun-06 215.83 — —
Jul-06 215.25 -0.27% —
Aug-06 214.34 -0.42% —
Sep-06 214.09 -0.12% —
Oct-06 214.29 0.09% —
Nov-06 214.24 -0.02% —
Dec-06 213.79 -0.21% —
Jan-07 212.78 -0.47% —
Feb-07 212.52 -0.12% —
Mar-07 212.40 -0.06% —
Apr-07 211.62 -0.37% —
May-07 210.51 -0.52% —
Jun-07 209.49 -0.48% -2.94%
Jul-07 208.37 -0.53% -3.20%
Aug-07 207.18 -0.57% -3.34%
Sep-07 206.39 -0.38% -3.60%
Oct-07 205.54 -0.41% -4.08%
Nov-07 204.38 -0.56% -4.60%
Dec-07 202.09 -1.12% -5.47%
Jan-08 200.44 -0.82% -5.80%
Feb-08 198.29 -1.07% -6.70%
Mar-08 196.51 -0.90% -7.48%
Apr-08 194.73 -0.91% -7.98%
May-08 194.22 -0.26% -7.74%
Jun-08 194.74 0.27% -7.04%
Jul-08 193.70 -0.53% -7.04%
Aug-08 193.48 -0.11% -6.61%
Sep-08 191.66 -0.94% -7.14%
Oct-08 189.67 -1.04% -7.72%
Nov-08 186.52 -1.66% -8.74%
Dec-08 183.46 -1.64% -9.22%
Jan-09 180.94 -1.37% -9.73%
Feb-09 177.83 -1.72% -10.32%
Mar-09 173.60 -2.38% -11.66%
Apr-09 170.67 -1.69% -12.36%
May-09 171.16 0.29% -11.87%
Jun-09 172.36 0.70% -11.49%
Jul-09 174.16 1.04% -10.09%
Aug-09 175.48 0.76% -9.30%
Sep-09 175.32 -0.09% -8.53%
Oct-09 174.89 -0.25% -7.79%
Nov-09 172.98 -1.09% -7.26%
Dec-09 171.85 -0.65% -6.33%
Jan-10 171.27 -0.34% -5.34%
No, be rude, as you can see NY’s YOY is -5.34%. Much closer to zero now then ever since the peak but look at the MOM changes that eventually shape YOY. They were in the green for four consecutive months, May to Aug of 09. But now they’ve been in decline since Sep 09 to date. Multiple false glimmers supported not by a real economic growth but by government life support that is now getting unplugged.
From the horse’s mouth (David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s)…
“The report is mixed. While we continue to see improvements in the year-over-year data for all 20 cities, the rebound in housing prices seen last fall is fading. Fewer cities experienced month-to-month gains in January than in December 2009, on both a seasonally adjusted and unadjusted basis.”
The rebound is fading. The rebound is faaa…
“Other recent data on housing also paint a mixed picture. Housing starts continue at extremely low levels, recent reports of home sales suggest the market remains difficult, and concerns remain about further foreclosures and a large shadow inventory of unsold homes. We are in a seasonally weak part of the year, but given the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price data reported today, we can’t say we’re out of the woods yet.”
Oh! The shadow inventory problem. How’s that going to go away?
And DIBS, you’re absolutely wrong. We’ve had four consecutive months of increasingly negative MOM numbers.
20-city
MON-YR, READING, MOM
Sep-09 146.73 0.38%
Oct-09 146.58 -0.10%
Nov-09 146.23 -0.24%
Dec-09 145.89 -0.23%
Jan-10 145.32 -0.39%
Guys, you’re in for a nasty suprise (well, not really as I’m sure it’s in the back of your minds now). We’re double dippin’.
Good weekend!
***Bid half off peak comps***
DOW 8000SP800…yes, he was right but he never shorted the market on the way down and he didn’t recognize that the market had bottomed when it did in March 2009, so he never made any money off of it. He stayed out of the market (to his credit, from what he’s told us) all the way down. But, you know what, I’m way above my 2008 high water mark after riding the market back up through 2010.