Real Estate Market Will Be Fine by 2011
That’s what the National Real Estate Investor magazine says, anyway. Well, not fine, exactly, but they predict that another couple of years of “stagnant job creation and tepid economic growth” will yield better results come 2011. Dr. Rajeev Dhawan — one of the economists they consult — “is projecting real gross domestic product growth at…
That’s what the National Real Estate Investor magazine says, anyway. Well, not fine, exactly, but they predict that another couple of years of “stagnant job creation and tepid economic growth” will yield better results come 2011. Dr. Rajeev Dhawan — one of the economists they consult — “is projecting real gross domestic product growth at a rate of 1.4% in 2008, decelerating to 0.5% in 2009 before beginning an anemic recovery to growth of 2.2% by 2010,” they write. Banks will rebound, they say, and oil prices will drop, and maybe inflation will fall, and, after the rough patch, the world of real estate will recover. Even if that scenario plays out, here’s the big question: Since the New York City market took longer to fall, does that mean it’ll also lag on the way back up?
Economists Expect Real Estate Recovery in 2011 [NREI]
Sign of the Times. Photo by respres.
DOW; “Exaaaaaactly. YOY = year-over-year = change from last year.”
I agree this is a good test DOW. I assume you suggest applying it on a calendar year basis as apposed to a running 12 monthly basis. For investors or those wanting to buy their first house (and not get hammered by a decline as they enter the market for the first time) this really does make a huge amount of sense. I would be less conservative and apply a running test.
Lechacal: For people simply upgrading an existing home why would you would sell your home and rent and then buy. Buying a “home” is not a trade. Surely the buyers out there are people buying into the same market they selling into and not really caring what happens to prices. Whether you are doing this or buying to live in for life that is the “long haul”.
Who cares if the housing market rebounds in 2011. The world is going to end in 2012.
Traditionalmod: I would guess that the average buyer of a full brownstone is in it for the long haul, but most housing units in Broolyn are not brownstones. There are a lot of new condo conversions, new condo projects, existing coops and condos, etc., and a lot of the buyers for those places will move within 5 years (or will want to – whether they get stuck because of the market is a different story). For people in my profession, moving to another city or country every couple of years is quite common (I have already done it a couple of times). For upwardly mobiile young families, the first home usually starts feeling small as soon as the family paycheck can buy a bigger place.
Was your conversion from foul-mouthed ignoramus to bitter looney?
“…starts [from] the beginning…”
“Prices going down to 5 years ago is also not a total collapse of our banking system I might add, as you are calling for on October 16th DOWhat.”
I don’t know, underwasder (you’re still combining me with The What so that was deserved). According to NYC S&P Case-Killer, that would be a -30% decline, well within the -25% to -50% I have predicted. But I think my lower limit of -50% is reasonable because this bubble was just an extension of our bubble economy. It was preceded by the Dot Com bubble that we never really “paid” for, macro-economically. Less Americans owned securities then than homes in 2007. The housing bubble saved us from a recession. So the excess beyond the intrinsic starts the beginning of the Dot Com era. I believe we’re going back further than 5 years.
Economic booms from other sectors usually drive the housing sector. This time, it was the housing sector itself (with the help of easy credit) that drove all other sectors. Don’t sleep on the overshoot factor. The market overshot on the way up and will likely do so on the way down.
“Housing prices in Clinton Hill will rebound when the twhat fianlly accepts that he has been permanently priced out and his crappy credit will never ever allow him to buy anything. He will then be forced to move. Quality of life will improve dramatically and the rebound will begin.”
LMMFAO! You are a fucking idiot! you are living in the middle of a Ghetto!
“I think you made the right choice Wasder. A person has to live somewhere. So the choice is rent or buy. I like to personalize where I live by doing real improvements so it doesn’t make sense to rent.”
Here Wasder let me jerk you off. I see you hands are burned off by the imploding Mutant Asset Bubble.
“Instead of accepting that an opportunity has passed and that he has self-worth issues, he comes on this site and tries to talk down the market and blame class/race warfare for all of his troubles.”
I had a conversion with a good old friend of mind last night. He told me that 30% of Americans can’t pick the US on a Map and 30% of Americans don’t know who the Secretary of State is (Who should be the VP pick). Guess what Assholes? These retards VOTE. I not surprised anymore by the reactions I get here. You Assfucks know deep down this thing is over but the denial is very thick. That why WASDER always reacts to my posts. Remember If what I’m saying is wrong then ignore it. Ignore me and don’t reply. DOW800 told you the same thing but you still react to his posts also. WADER I don’t give a fuck about you or the the rest of the Assfucks on Brownstoner because I know the implosion is right around the corner.
“”I think US & European economies are in for long and slow deflationary period something akin to the Japanese since ’89 real estate bust.””
I don’t think so DOW. I think our bust will be very violent.. Because of Greed and Denial….
The What (Tick…… Tick……. Tick……)
Someday this war is gonna end…
How is it “actually quite rare” to be in it for the long haul when buying a brownstone, Lechecal? Where do you get that? People live entire lifetimes in brownstones in NYC. Our elderly neighbors have. A lot of the newer homeowners in our neighborhood have owned their houses at least 10 years already and plan to stay. Do you even know people who own brownstones?
“I think US & European economies are in for long and slow deflationary period something akin to the Japanese since ’89 real estate bust.”
QOTD