Real Estate Market Will Be Fine by 2011
That’s what the National Real Estate Investor magazine says, anyway. Well, not fine, exactly, but they predict that another couple of years of “stagnant job creation and tepid economic growth” will yield better results come 2011. Dr. Rajeev Dhawan — one of the economists they consult — “is projecting real gross domestic product growth at…
That’s what the National Real Estate Investor magazine says, anyway. Well, not fine, exactly, but they predict that another couple of years of “stagnant job creation and tepid economic growth” will yield better results come 2011. Dr. Rajeev Dhawan — one of the economists they consult — “is projecting real gross domestic product growth at a rate of 1.4% in 2008, decelerating to 0.5% in 2009 before beginning an anemic recovery to growth of 2.2% by 2010,” they write. Banks will rebound, they say, and oil prices will drop, and maybe inflation will fall, and, after the rough patch, the world of real estate will recover. Even if that scenario plays out, here’s the big question: Since the New York City market took longer to fall, does that mean it’ll also lag on the way back up?
Economists Expect Real Estate Recovery in 2011 [NREI]
Sign of the Times. Photo by respres.
“And why don’t you answer my question about the chinese? You rant and rave about this stuff and then when I try to get into it with you you clam up. Classic internet bully…”
wasder and 11233, DOWhat avoids all posts that nail him. In calling him out on his 90 day doom and gloom prediction, he hasn’t once responded or acknowledged his timeline. Did you notice that his countdown (which often mysteriously reset) quickly stopped once he realized we were monitoring it? But the banter between his two alter egos DOW8000SP800 and The What is adorable. wasder, it’s too coincidental they almost always appear in the same threads at the exact same time. They’re one and the same.
Lechacal–no offense taken and yes I am aware that the house is likely not going to appreciate any time soon (I even expect it to depreciate somewhat, although I purchased it at 200G less than original ask so I don’t think I bought at the “top” of the market, maybe midway down the slide?). I did buy for the long haul–my career is here, I can work from home now and save on office space in the city etc etc, my wife and I like Clinton Hill and have found a community of parents and kids that I think my children will be happy among. that being said, I am married to an Aussie so at some point we will give Sydney a shot and rent out our place here (another reason to ditch the co-op).
Aussie–thanks for the vote of confidence. As I am sure you know, these decisions are hard. I certainly can see both sides of your and Lechacal’s conversation about how to time the market etc. Lechacal’s stance, as rational as it is, implies a life that is very mobile and flexible. My life is not that way, with children and careers and need for space etc (as I am sure many people’s lives here are). So I don’t have the luxury of playing the market in the same way. I did buy what I thought was easily the best value in the area that I wanted to live in and I did manage to knock a good bit off the ask before I bought so I feel all things considered I made a rational choice that met most of my parameters. Certainly I don’t expect to flip this house at any profit in the near future, but I now have a comfortable house for my family and my business, and I can make my mortgage payments while only having to rent out one floor (garden). So that was my choice and I thought long and hard about it. Selling my two bedroom coop proved very easy, which shows you that well priced apartments in well maintained buildings in desirable neighborhoods continue to sell without too much trouble.
DOW–I will call a moratorium on calling you DOWhat. I am not convinced you are not one and the same and believe me I will continue to observe you “bosum buddies” posting patterns but I have no interest in making internet enemies. You at least can dole out your doomsday scenarios with a modicum of decorum. Whether or not you are the “bear prophet” you picture yourself to be, you have a point of view and you manage to articulate it without calling people names.
WHAT—This quote is classic—“You Assfucks know deep down this thing is over but the denial is very thick.” If “this thing” is the insane explosion of property values then yes it is over, but who here is denying that. You throw these straw men up to shoot down but nobody is really arguing at least the basics of the economic issues. It is when you delve into the sociological aspects that you reveal yourself to be such a dumbass troll. “This thing” (this site, these people, these neighborhoods) is a discussion about old houses and revitalizing neighborhoods and renovating. This is not over—a dip in the economy is a drag but it doesn’t mean people stop going on with their lives.
And why don’t you answer my question about the chinese? You rant and rave about this stuff and then when I try to get into it with you you clam up. Classic internet bully…
“LMMFAO! You are a fucking idiot! you are living in the middle of a Ghetto!”
– Twhat
LMMFAO! You are an idiot! You are NO LONGER living in the middle of a Ghetto!
Refer to my post at 1:40 PM to see why your comment is off the mark.
We know you have a very loose grip on reality, sweetie, but when you intentionally avoid someone’s post, we all know we have hit the nail right on the head. You are so easy to read.
I really hope you like Thai food.
Lechecal, I do agree even if it’s an apartment and not a house, it’s still best to own it at least 5 years if not 10, ideally. Buying and selling within 3 year at any time not just now, is risky. But many more New Yorkers do stay longer in apartments than you may realize. We had a 2BR co-op we sold in Park Slope my husband owned for 9 years as a young bachelor. All his neighbors had a child or two, and they they’ve all lived there in 2BR size apartments anywhere from 5 to 9 years. It’s only when kids get closer to 10-12 years old that it’s nicer if kids don’t have to share a room. But it’s not horrible to share, nor is it rare in NYC.
“Who cares if the housing market rebounds in 2011. The world is going to end in 2012.” – DOWhat.
DOWhat, are you now hedging your bets. Let’s remind everyone that DOWhat predicted October 16, 2008 as the end of the world as we know it. We have 41 days left.
“I say in about 90 days all hell is going to break lose. The crash will be very very bad. Then you will here from me in a big way. When I post something like this: I love the smell… There will be no refuting any of my arguments!
The What (Tick.. Tick.. Tick..)
Someday this war is gonna end…
Posted by: what at July 18, 2008 2:52 PM”
I’m not sure I quite follow what you are saying, particularly in your last sentence.
By way of full disclosure, I didn’t sell my home just because I thought the market would drop. I sold because I was moving from the suburbs back to the Slope, and then made the decision to not roll my equity back into buying. It would be different if I sold and moved a block away to rent. I don’t advocate speculative selling for happy homeowners who don’t otherwise have a reason to sell, but for someone who otherwise has some sort of life event where they can decide whether to become a renter or a buyer, I would strongly recommend the former.
“You go like a asshole and “refi” because you want to open up a Thai restaurant in the Ghetto because you read the Hype-Fuck of Brownstoner and beLIEve that the Asshats are coming your way.”
HA! He KILLS me!
“Aussie: Pointing to the impossibility of timing the market as a reason to buy is an old argument, and in my view a terrible one.”
We agree. I don’t think I said what you say I did.
You, I would say, are a trader …or you should be. Can you see a time when it will not be worth it to you to sell a home and wait for the market to drop? A time when you live in your “home” with your family, and trade something else?
Aussie, that is a very good point. People who aleady own are indeed in a very different position from those who are renting and deciding on when to buy. For people in the former position, when they buy and sell should generally be a wash (as long as they roll the proceeds right into the next place). For people in the latter position, the entry point is hugely important.
That being said, I do actually know (or know of) a few people who have sold in the past year and are renting — myself included. I cashed out in November 2007. I am putting my money where my mouth is. I estimate that I have already saved about $20,000 after-tax dollars that I otherwise would have spent on mortgage payments for an equivalent apartment, and I am about to save a whole lot more than that in losses that don’t book because I didn’t buy.