Open House Picks: Six Months Later
Comment: Not so bad. Open House Picks 10/09/09 [Brownstoner] Previous Six Months Later Posts [Brownstoner]
Comment: Not so bad.
Open House Picks 10/09/09 [Brownstoner]
Previous Six Months Later Posts [Brownstoner]
squaredrive,
The math is crystal clear, lowrider. The average decline is roughly 20% as evidenced in local RE firm reports AND NY metro CS. South Slope is not North Slope so 20% is not far off. I only used ask to estimate the decline, not project the peak. I used CS and an earlier comp on the same property, considering the consensus that priced doubled from 2003, to estimate the peak. This is data.
Specific comps, particular peak ones, are not readily available nor convenient to obtain for nearby properties. Otherwise, you’d have countered my argument by now. Homework, or wild goose chases, take time that I don’t have. Comp data is very opaque. A comprehensive database would be a nice addition to brownstoner. There’s nothing wrong with projecting data if done correctly and I have done so. Do you have a convincing counter?
You wouldn’t last a split second with “3 + 2 = 8”. Not a good analogy. You’re bothering to spend a decent amount of time psychoanalyzing my methods but no time countering with data of your own.
Likewise, enjoy the rest of the weekend and hit some switches for good measure!
***Bid half off peak comps***
I remember 376 11th Street – it was well followed by throngs of eager (read: annoying) buyers. Its on the smaller side, 18.5 ft wide and 2160sf but they did a good job inside, bright with sweet deck and backyard, picture perfect for a small family looking to stay east of 5th avenue. Sold for $676/sf (asking $763/sf…that was a pretty rich ask so far from the park)… I am not a huge fan of 5th avenue below 9th street but this probably made a lot of people think twice. For those who wonder, this was a $650k down kind of buyer. Plus approaching $700 psf. Yeah, what a bear market!
The Kensington E 7th Street looked like it was quite reasonably priced (rare) and closed pretty close. A tad nowheresville for me (church ave and prospect expressway = prozac), but hey if you’ve got kids and a tight budget RE taxes are much better than jerzee. Coincidentally seems to work for people working in TV industry (both buyers and sellers).
That flatbush E 22nd st one – backwater broker listings on craigslist with no web site are a joke. No shocker there is a lack of info. Someone said the sign displayed outside says “in contract”.
BHO – that math is fuzzier than the dice on my rear view mirror. You are using a highly generalized multiplier (NY metro CS) against an ASKING price to project peak comp? Is that actually correct?
Peak comps are not numerical projections – it’s actually verifiable information. For someone so invested in the ‘peak comp’ you never seem to present any actual facts about peak comps for specific properties in any neighborhood. Why don’t you do your homework and actually make a convincing argument?
I can say “3 + 2 = 8 unless proven otherwise” all day long; just because no one bothers doesn’t make me right. Enjoy the weekend.
“Where is the comp that says the 11th Street house is a decline?”
NY Case Shiller Index is from actual comps of single family houses only in the NY Metro area. It was up +200% trough to peak like Brooklyn brownstones. It’s down -21% like Brooklyn brownstones. You cannot deny the relevance and correlation.
1.65/0.79 = $2.09M (peak comp)
$2.09M >>> $1.45M >>> 31% decline until proven otherwise.
Put another way, it sold for $0.959M at the end of 2003. Prices doubled from there to the peak. So, $1.918M >>> $1.45M >>> 24% decline until proven otherwise.
Decline decline decline, folks.
***Bid half off peak comps***
“Let’s say it’s the 3-8% off that is constant. If the figure you’re taking off from continues to decline, that’s not so great.”
But that begs the question. Where is the comp that says the 11th Street house is a decline? Bull or bear, argue from actual comps, folks.
2/4 is as bullish as it gets in this bear market.
“more foreclosures to come. Blah, blah, blah. We’ve been hearing that story for 18 months now.”
The longer banks put off foreclosures on defaulted proporties, the more brutal the avalanche of inventory. Delay is inversely proportional to prices. So, not blah blah blah, rather sell sell sell.
“Time for team bear to throw in the towel.”
We’ve done that for the first dip. Now, it’s time for Team Bullshit to throw in the towel for the stimulus induced stock market recovery while the real economy and housing market continue to hemhorage mark-to-market value on a month-to-month basis, soon year-to-year again.
“The percentage above or off asking price is meaningless”
Wrong wrong wrong. Although not as legitimate AS comps, most asks have declined in this bear market just as comps have. Anything off ask tends to be something off a downward moving target. Quite meaningful in direction if not magnitude.
“Ok, I’ll admit it….3-8% off of ask is a real slow market…This is about the most ridiculous statement I’ve ever heard on here.”
Break down why it’s ridiculous, DIBS. You didn’t address constant demand, an assumption that I happen to disagree with because it is declining. By and large, demand is only 20% desire but 80% fear as banks are privately preoccupied with undisclosed losses and failing modifications. Insolvency is everywhere. Mortgage/credit continues to contract.
http://tinyurl.com/ybegnrr (Big Banks Mask Risk Levels)
Let’s say it’s the 3-8% off that is constant. If the figure you’re taking off from continues to decline, that’s not so great.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Who pays the retail for anything? Are you guys loonies? You better get a little off the sticker or you’re not doing it right.
Ten percent off ask should be normal. It is in Queens.
Ok, I’ll admit it….3-8% off of ask is a real slow market.
This is about the most ridiculous statement I’ve ever heard on here. Truly. In many ways it’s more ridiculous than what cornerbodega and hannible spout.