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Comment: Mixed bag.
Open House Picks 8/22/08 [Brownstoner]
Previous Six Months Later Posts [Brownstoner]


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  1. 1. Prime Manhattan to fall 40-50% as per Goldman Sachs, Barons. I’m sure you’ve read it.

    2. BROOKLYN WILL BE WORSE THAN MANHATTAN AS PER MILLER SAMUEL:

    “Prices are declining citywide as the protracted U.S. housing slump belatedly reached New York following upheaval in the financial sector. Cheaper, outlying sections of the city like BROOKLYN ARE AT RELATIVELY MORE RISK than is the commercial and cultural center of Manhattan during such times, said Jonathan Miller, CEO of appraisal firm Miller Samuel, who wrote the report with real estate brokerage firm Prudential Douglas Elliman.” 1/23/09

    3. GHETTOS LIKE BED STUY WILL UNDERPERFORM THE REST OF BROOKLYN:

    “A new report from the appraisal firm Miller Samuel shows prices are down and the number of sales are down even more. The eastern part of Brooklyn was hit the hardest. We’re talking Crown Heights, Bed-Stuy, East New York and Bushwick. Those neighborhoods also have seen some of the highest concentrations of foreclosures” 2/3/09

    I just outlined, with references that 1. Manhattan falls 40-50%, 2. Brooklyn will be worse than Manhattan, 3. Bed stuy will be one of the worst off. 50%+ drop in bed stuy. Whatcha got besides delusional hopes dibs?

  2. Congratulations Jebby. Hope you enjoy it. Tell us more about it. Did we all see it here as HOTD once??

    Funny thing, after I bought my house in March 2007, and started on brownstoner, i saw that mine was HOTD sometime the previous year. It was great reading all the comments. There were the usual….it’ll never sell, oh, so beautiful, i live near there and hope it sells, can’t wait to see who buys it, no fool will pay anything close to that in the ghetto!!! I’m still very happy.

  3. I’ve never understood this reference to ‘x% below ask’ as somehow relevant. If I advertise my kid’s old bicycle on craigslist for $8,500, and end up taking $5,000, does this indicate that the chidren’s bicycle market is weak?

  4. I bought plenty of NYC real estate when prices made sense, and I’ll buy more when they make sense again.

    Prices will never go down to where they are in Toledo because rents are much higher here.

    Folks irrationally bid up real estate prices over the last ten years, but prices will rationally fall back to earth in the next couple years.

    Given current market conditions, a fifty percent decline from current levels certainly is in the realm of possibility, especially considering that prices doubled and tripled over the last decade.

    Currently the DOW is trading where it was ELEVEN years ago.

    Real estate prices don’t adjust as quickly as the stock market, due to the limited number of transactions, but given time they will.

  5. Jebby, so houses in these areas are going for about 90 percent of asking. Do you know how the actual selling prices compare to, say, last quarter, last year, or June 2006??? Because we really do not know where prices are in the “prime” areas of Brooklyn. We get very little information.

  6. cornerbodega – I am not a member of team bear or team bull. I’m a member of team “saving up a down payment and my wife is laid off so it doesn’t matter what the market does.”

    If at some point I can get a decent brownstone in Stuyvesant Heights for $250k, then I will do so, whether or not my wife has a job, because we can afford that on my income alone. However, that hasn’t happened yet.

    I’m not saying they will or won’t someday hit a 50% reduction. Who knows? But we’re nowhere near it yet.

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