Market Predictions for 2006: Neighborhood Picks
In what is now becoming an annual tradition, we invite you to share your thoughts and predictions for the Brooklyn housing market in 2006. Like last year, we’re particularly curious to hear your neighborhood “longs” and “shorts”. On a risk-adjusted basis, we’re most bullish on Prospect Heights and Carroll Gardens and, relatively speaking, would bet…
In what is now becoming an annual tradition, we invite you to share your thoughts and predictions for the Brooklyn housing market in 2006. Like last year, we’re particularly curious to hear your neighborhood “longs” and “shorts”. On a risk-adjusted basis, we’re most bullish on Prospect Heights and Carroll Gardens and, relatively speaking, would bet against Williamsburg. Overall, though, we don’t think 2006 will look at all like 2005, which was marked by huge surges in prices in some rapidly gentrifying neighborhoods. From where we sit, 2006 is looking like a year for the market to take a breath and digest all the rapid-fire changes that have occurred in recent years. Barring a big move upward in rates, we think prices will more-or-less move sideways. In our own little corner of Brooklyn, the big test will be whether the upscaling of Fulton Street can extend beyond Fort Greene. Man, could we use a gourmet market in Clinton Hill! Anyway, that’s how we see it. But what do we know. We’d rather hear from you.
Happy New Year.
Brownstoner
I live in Park Slope now and 85% of the people I know send their kids to public school, as do I. And that holds for the new people–it is one of the reasons they bought here.
I agree that prices in areas with the bad public schools have out paced the areas with the good public schools. But those are also the same neighborhoods that drop first in a down market. Last ones up and the first ones down.
Short: Harlem, Clinton Hill
Was talking about the 10:15 post. So basta with the caps.
“Most people WHO SPEND $2.5 MILLION ON THEIR HOUSE send their kids to private school” is what was said. If you are arguing with that, you live in a different city than I do. I lived in Park Slope for years and every one of my friends sent their kids to private school, same with 90% of my friends who live in the West Village. Sorry. The school system was just not a factor in this price range.
“most people send their kids to private school” — that is 100% bull.
Regarding the price inflation in Clinton Hill, Ft Greene, etc with poor public schools: This is why I’d be short those areas. People who have moved there in last 2-3 years with very young children think “we’ll all get together and work the school-thing out”. Good luck with that. More likely, you’ll move or spend 18k for private schools (with no financial aid bcs your house is worth a lot now).
321 has brought PS a long way. (And PS brought 321 a long way , but it took 10 years) But now it’s overcrowded. PS8 in Brooklyn Heights is just now good (I’m long BH). 29 is great but in danger of overcrowding too.
Middle school is a whole different story bcs those kids can take the subway. Any NY kid can apply to any NY middle school.
OK – I am not the person you are directing your remark to but I just have to say that if you are correct and loads of people are spending $2.5 million on a house, but don’t have $50K/year in cash for their 2 children to go to private school, those loads of people are in big trouble and bought way over their income level. Everyone I know who spent this kind of money on a house/apartment sends their kids to private school, even those who bought in areas with good public schools.
Also, I have numerous friends and associates in Brooklyn Heights and none of them have seen their property value triple in the last 3 years. I agree that Brooklyn Heights or Park Slope might have increased just as much as Fort Greene and Ditmas, etc… but the figures you quoted seem a bit outrageous.
to anon at 11:50:
sorry, you don’t make any sense. either you have the 250 K to put into the downpayment that you would otherwise use for private school or you’re borrowing an extra million at 6% which will cost you 1 million in principle that you will have to pay back plus 60K a year in interest x 5 equals 300K (“all cash”) Do the math and I think it makes a whole lot of sense.
On prices increases in nabes. Check out Corcoran’s annual report on average percentage price increases for nabes and I think you’ll find the ungentrified nabes have done better as an investment over the past 5 years than gentrfied nabes. Example a town house that sold for 300K in ft. green 5 years ago may be selling for 1.8 today. That’s 6x your money, not 3x as in your friends case.
To anon-o-man: 2 kids in private school for 5 years is $250,000–all cash. Loads of people who can afford a huge mortgage and a big downpayment do NOT have an extra 250K just hanging around.
As for the contention that FG et al have increased more than the Heights–I don’t buy it. My friends bought a house in the heights 3 years ago for 1.6. It was just appraised at over 5 million. I haven’t seen increases like that in Ditmas or CH.
Yes I (anonymous 9:27) have spent plenty of time in Lefferts Manor. I have a number of friends who live there. My friends all bought lovely houses there for $300,000-400,000 about 5 years ago and are relatively happy with the choice given the alternatives. However they all think that the current prices are absurd given the serious drawbacks of the neighborhood. And at least 2 of them live near Flatbush and would totally disagree with calling the area quiet and safe.
But I wasn’t bashing the area–I was bashing the absurd prices being asked. As the Slope begins to look like a mall, there is much to be said for a lack of amenities. But you shouldn’t be paying for them if they aren’t there.