Market Predictions for 2006: Neighborhood Picks
In what is now becoming an annual tradition, we invite you to share your thoughts and predictions for the Brooklyn housing market in 2006. Like last year, we’re particularly curious to hear your neighborhood “longs” and “shorts”. On a risk-adjusted basis, we’re most bullish on Prospect Heights and Carroll Gardens and, relatively speaking, would bet…
In what is now becoming an annual tradition, we invite you to share your thoughts and predictions for the Brooklyn housing market in 2006. Like last year, we’re particularly curious to hear your neighborhood “longs” and “shorts”. On a risk-adjusted basis, we’re most bullish on Prospect Heights and Carroll Gardens and, relatively speaking, would bet against Williamsburg. Overall, though, we don’t think 2006 will look at all like 2005, which was marked by huge surges in prices in some rapidly gentrifying neighborhoods. From where we sit, 2006 is looking like a year for the market to take a breath and digest all the rapid-fire changes that have occurred in recent years. Barring a big move upward in rates, we think prices will more-or-less move sideways. In our own little corner of Brooklyn, the big test will be whether the upscaling of Fulton Street can extend beyond Fort Greene. Man, could we use a gourmet market in Clinton Hill! Anyway, that’s how we see it. But what do we know. We’d rather hear from you.
Happy New Year.
Brownstoner
Park Slope is not the top of the market in NYC. If you follow your logic Park Slope should fair well given that there are neighborhoods that are more expensive.
Established areas will retain more value than speculative areas.
You bought something hoping that more people with money and more amenities would follow. The interest rates rise on that interest only loans and people around you are defaulting on there mortgages. Your area becomes more unstable.
Look at the maps feature of Propertyshark.com compare the foreclosure frequency map to the Tax Value map.
I said 85% of the the people I know, not of the whole area, you idiot. Yes, we are in the 321 zone (and we own a single-family). The school was a big part of the decision to buy here–as it was for most of the people I KNOW who live here.
Anyway, the top of the market always goes down first. But it is the areas that increased the most that crash the most.
Wow! I wonder who goes to private schools if 85% of park slope goes to public, not withstanding the fact that PS321 is only zoned for a small area and is overcrowded to limit out of zone applications.
I think my original point is that because people know they are sending their kids to private schools the less gentrified nabes won’t be going down more than totally gentrified ones. In fact I think most real estate brokers will say that its the top of the market that has seen the most price decreases over the last 6 monhs. It might change in the future, but I think most people who bought in the ungentrified nabes are young and looking to stay which is a lot better than a lot of baby boomers trying to cash out and retire somewhere else. Just a thought.
If Clinton Hill or Hills reaches the prices of Park Slope/BHeights/Cobble/Carroll will prospective buyers still look favorably on Clinton Hill.
There are beautiful homes in many many neighborhoods in Brooklyn, more than what gets discussed in Brownstoner.
If a 4000 sqft home in Clinton Hill is for sale for 2mil and so is a 4000 sqft house in Park Slope will people still pick Clinton Hill hands down?
I had a choice when I bought my Brownstone in 2002 between one in clinton hill(on washington ave) for $950k or one on a park block in the slope for $1.2 million. both 4 stories. I chose the one in the slope. Both were in similar condition, the CH house slightly wider. I believe that the one in Ch is probably $1.6 million now, whereas mine is now over $2 million. So in that time frame the slope one had more(slightly) appreciation even as a % of orig purchase price. Maybe if you go back to an analysis of someone buying in the early 90’s then I would agree that the appreciation was greater in FG and CH. but in my time frame, I don’t see it.
RE: school overcrowding. Over the past 5 years, Brooklyn has undergone a baby boom of sorts. This is one of the reasons prices have been running up.
If you think overcrowding is limited to public schools think again. Every private school in Brooklyn is at capacity(with the exception of parachocial schools). There simply is not enough available space in private schools to meet everyones demand. I went to an open house at Poly Prep a few weeks ago. There were hundreds of families at the open house, hoping to get in. The same for Packard, same for St.Anns, same for Berkley Carrol etc, etc. All you parents pushing your toddlers around in strollers have a very rude awakening ahead. If you think it was difficult finding a good pre-school, the worst is yet to come.
The fact the someone spends $2M on a house, doesnt guarentee that you will get into the private school of your choice.
Coop/condo and renters in Park Slope send their kids to public school. Owners of single family homes more likely choose private school unless they bought in South Slope.
People on the other side of flatbush ave love bashing PArk Slope. Yet when their neighborhood starts looking like Park SLope they can wait to brag about it.
I bought in Fort Greene, sold, then bought in Clinton Hill in the past 6 years. I knew the school situation going in and plan on sending my child to private school. The newer residents knew of the school situation when buying too, so it is not a shock. People who buy in PS 321’s district in Park Slope often based their decision to purchase in part on the public school availability (and the higher prices reflect that). If the public school standards were not what attracted you to a neighborhood (e.g. FG and Clinton Hill) and you planned on sending your children to private school, then it is a non-issue for you and those like you. To me and to many others, planning on spending another 25K a year on schooling is something that is planned for. It’s a reality that most non PS 321 people take as a given, hence it will not likely have an real dampening effect on real estate prices in FG and Clinton Hill and other close to Manhattan nabes (closer than PSlope in many cases…). Plus to think that FG and Clinton Hill are somehow going to slide back to pre 1995 levels in terms of the neighborhood conditions and prices is unrealistic and, imo, reflects some provincial thinking by someone who does not know the area and how well established it now is.