Goldman: NYC Prices Have a Ways to Go
“New York apartment prices are very high relative to the observable fundamentals. Using three alternative yardsticks—price/rent, price/income, and affordability—we find that prices would need to decline by 35%-44% to return to the valuation levels seen in the 1995-1999 period, before the start of the recent boom.” — Goldman Sachs via Curbed
11217 is right, GS is now a new york bank holding company looking for deposits, which I’m sure they’ll be very adept at doing.
If I’m not mistaken, Goldman Sachs is no longer an investment bank because of this, and is now a holding which now accepts deposits from everyday customers.
I’d say that’s a pretty big change from what they once were, and shows they weren’t as good at “investing” as they thought they were.
Muffet is corret about Goldman Sachs. It is one of the very few big investment banks that is A-OK right now. They managed to steer clear of the subprime mess, so now, if they are saying r.e. prices will go down precipitously in NYC in the coming year, I think we should take it seriously. These people are the survivors. Besides, it just makes common sense that when prices go in one direction and incomes in another, a crash of some kind is likely.
wasder, your experience is exactly why I argue that I always prefer to buy a home in move-in condition and then consider making changes down the road. Probably due to the fact I have no skills/interest in taking on big projects, but also to avoid the headache of major renovations. Having said that, there are many out there much better equipped than me to do so and I’ve seen miraculous renovation jobs completed by those with the time and skill (and money of course). slopefarm, I too would hate to see you leave this site as you’re such a valuable contributor. I know you’ll eventually turn your place into exactly what you want…the frustation you’re experiencing is certainly understandable and likely similar to what many other’s have gone through. Hopefully you can find some comfort here in reading about similar experiences that started rough but turned out well in the end.
slopefarm, if you want, I can be the intermediary. I have wasder’s email and can send it on to you if you email me at biffchampion@yahoo.com. I would love to join you guys for a drink too if it’s ok.
I have the same problem wasder. Both my home and work emails advertise too much.
This site doesn’t get me down and I don’t mind the banter. It’s more that, rather than purging my nightmare, some forum queries bring it all back. (See the attorney conflict thread and Denton’s posts on the reno pages as but two examples).
“People who bought for the FIRST TIME in 2005-on may have problems”
The only reason they’d have a problem is if they need to sell, which is probably a minute fraction of people.
—– wow, nyc is still immune from the rest of the country! Now we can all breathe a sigh of relief!!!!
When I broght my apt in CH in 2005 I prepared myself that prices could drop 20% because the market was acting like the dot.com/tech bubble of 1999. When everyone is yacking about an asset, expect a downfall. Some may recall that the nasdaq hit 5000 in March 2000, today it’s 1583. The tech bubble didn’t burst, it let out air almost every week between march 2000 and october 2002. I know that homes are more ‘sticky’ price wise vs stocks but that is because people had invested money in them. 2005 was the era of no money down, pay no pricipal,so no reason to stick around. The COOP market, with its rules will save some pain, but all new construction have been condo and they had no rules.
People are scarred for their jobs no matter what industry they are in, the only safe ones are city employees and I doubt they can afford your 2 million house in fringy CH. I love my apt/hood in CH and wouldn’t trade my decision but many didn’t think the possibility thru, just listened to the chatter.
Wheres Sebb when you need him for some comic relief?
Oh yeah, and I meant to say slope that you are totally correct that I lucked out in not having to do a major reno right off the bat. We simply did not have the time or the capital to consider buying a place that needed major overhauling, so we had to wait until a livable house that we could afford fell into our price range.