Goldman: NYC Prices Have a Ways to Go
“New York apartment prices are very high relative to the observable fundamentals. Using three alternative yardsticks—price/rent, price/income, and affordability—we find that prices would need to decline by 35%-44% to return to the valuation levels seen in the 1995-1999 period, before the start of the recent boom.” — Goldman Sachs via Curbed
Ahhh, I see Biff beat me to the punch.
slopefarm, sorry for misunderstanding your situation. It sounds like you’ve been to hell and back and had no idea / couldn’t have predicted what you were getting into. Sounds like most of it’s behind you now. All you can do is try not to dwell on the past nightmares and move forward. I know that’s far easier said than done.
Goldman Sachs may be right on this one, but then again they were also predicting oil prices going to $150-200/barrel “in the near future.”
However you dice it, Goldman Sachs is still around while Lehman, Merril Lynch and many others have gone bye-bye, or would have without big welfare checks from Washington.
New Brownstoner business model: post one quote each day about housing prices and let the comments fly.
“Miss Muffett and BH76 basically reiterate my case for relative stability in brownstone prices. There are tens of thousands of Manhattan condo owners with HUGE gains. If they decide on a bit of a lifestyle change and start looking into a move to Brooklyn and a brownstone, they will be in awe of what they can buy to not only get so much more space and a deck and a yard but also to lower their monthly outlays with RE taxes being lower and condo charges disappearing. On top of that, if they so choose, there can be a tenant in one of the floors to cover a large portion of the mortgage.
It doesn’t take a lot of people moving from Manhattan to sop up the market for brownstones in Brooklyn.
I’m in no way saying that many brownstones are not overpriced. I’m saying you have to look at it from this vantage point.”
Obvious Dibs doesn’t know too many Manhattanites. Your “theories” are teenage adolescence caliber.
Thanks Biff,
We’re not still in the midst of it and we are done with contractors and the like. Just a few unhappy little items remain, and we wish we hadn’t spent so much (but we are nowhere near upside down). I am also not planning to leave the site. I just need to curb the addiction a bit.
We never intended to take on a major reno. Our seller was supposed to complete his reno before we closed (we saw the house as the reno was supposedly nearing its end). As the reno proceeded, we uncovered massive illegalities and fraud in the work. As we negotiated, then litigated, we uncovered more unsavory things. We got a hefty price reduction, but ended up ripping out a lot of the faulty work and rectifying problems that had been covered over by sheetrock and the like. So we were already worn out when we started an extensive reno. Not an ideal situation.
I think if you have the stomach for it, you can achieve great things by buying a fixer-upper and renovating. But it is not for everyone. Now I am stuck with all this house stuff in my head, which is why I started hanging out here.
December 8, 2008
NEW YORK: Goldman Sachs’s long run of profitable quarters came to an end on Tuesday as the bank announced a loss of $2.12 billion, driven by big markdowns on its large portfolio of proprietary investments in everything from Japanese golf courses to Chinese banks.
Goldman also predicted $200 per barrel of oil
http://barelkarsan.com/2008/12/goldman-sachs-wonky-oil-predictions.html