Case-Shiller: Beware the Head Fake
There was some reason to take comfort about yesterday’s data from the Case-Shiller Index—the rate of price declines slowed for the third straight month nationally. But before you break out the champagne and check books, get a dose of what the Wall Street Journal had to say yesterday: The bloodletting may not be over. Here’s…
There was some reason to take comfort about yesterday’s data from the Case-Shiller Index—the rate of price declines slowed for the third straight month nationally. But before you break out the champagne and check books, get a dose of what the Wall Street Journal had to say yesterday:
The bloodletting may not be over. Here’s why: If price declines accelerate for the mid-to-upper end of the housing market, then that could generate enough large declines in values—even among a small segment of the overall housing market—to push the index lower still.
Meanwhile, here in New York (where there’s plenty of “mid-to-upper” properties) housing prices ticked down another 1.6 percent in April for a total of 21 percent off the June 2008 high, as the chart above shows.
11217 – I know there are bright spots for folks. unfortunately I am not one of them nor are people in my circle. You all know I am selling my house b/c we can’t enjoy our life. sure the bills get paid..barely – but what happens if I DID lose my job OR the boiler blows up, you know? Talk about the noose tightening around me!
I think many people are like me, 1 disaster away from financial chaos. I don’t blame anyone but me. I could have been more frugal. but I defintely don’t regret buying my house 6 years ago as I am making a nice profit off of it even at 18% off my asking price 🙂
am taking this step in my life as a reset
And just what kind of wave are you getting that 25 year number from???? I’ve been through a number of stock market cycles since 1995…at least 3 and each time we went higher…inflation hasn’t been high enough to materially ffect the returns
DIBS, that is one way to look at it. Another way is that the average time to reach inflation-adjusted peak after the bear market starts is about 25 years. Thus, all those many people who had accumulated assets for retirement or whatever prior to 2000 may as well kiss it goodbye. If you’re young, maybe this is not such a big deal since you have more of your savings invested at a lower base and you can ride up the recovery curve. If you are, say, a babyboomer, you won’t have the opportunity. Thus the prospects for a very weak and drawn-out recovery.
P.S. When I say “pack their bags” I mean people may move to a lower tax state, that’s part of what initially fueled the sunbelt anyway. Rob said somewhere today why pay $11 for Newports when they cost 4 somewhere else?
Gemini. Ok. The noose has been tightening for consumer debt (I refuse to call it credit because it’s not). Credit limits are also being slashed, which will worsen consumers’ troubles, though I’m sure it works in the banks’ favor. Some of this does depend on your perspective, if you’re a bank guy, you might see it as a positive. If your severance package and unemployment are running out, then, uh, not so much, eh?
NYS will have no choice but to jack up taxes of all sorts and probably dream up more before they realize that people with no money to spare will sooner pack their bags than hand over what money they have to the state. The state’s going to have to contract…Not that NYS ever spent money wisely…It could get ughly
All depends on who you know I guess Gemini. A couple months ago, I feel like every day I was hearing about another friend who had lost their job and it was really quite scary (although personally I feel secure). Then about a month ago, nearly everyone I can think of (but one person) has landed a new job, and in a few cases, MUCH better and better paying jobs than the ones they were laid off from.
Clearly things are going to be bumpy for a while still, but all of the terrifying predictions of 25% unemployment and the next Great Depression seem more and more far fetched than they did even at the height of the panic.
It’s a bad recession. We will get through it though. Always have.
well – and I respect Dibs’ knowledge and many others here as they know far more than I do and I hope he’s right,
but if I was to go gutteral and not cerebral, My gut tells me we are heading into an economic mess here locally. Am really concerned about our state and city being run by a bunch of knucklheads. I am concerned about my own plight not to mention some of my friends and neighbors.
But real talk:
I still will have a job a year from now if I plan to stay at this place – however my hours were cut ($600 loss a month) and my husband can’t work OT ($200 loss) a month. the chances of us getting raises in the next year are slim to none.
2 of my friends have been out of work for 3 months now. 2 family members, just graduated from college and grad school can’t find jobs. I hear more about people losing their jobs, or having their jobs scaled back then being hired by some fresh new company.
I don’t see anything wrong with stock prices, since they’re already 40% below peak. If that means 40% less corporate earnings are being priced in, I don’t think it’s fundamentally off, given where we are in the recession.
Like a few others here, I’m long stocks now, and still short RE. I wish RE was 40% below peak, but as everyone knows, it’s downward-sticky, and will take much longer to bottom.
“ditto…did you see What called me a “Mo Mo” above???”
I’m sure he was just accusing you of being a momentum investor.