Case-Shiller: Beware the Head Fake
There was some reason to take comfort about yesterday’s data from the Case-Shiller Index—the rate of price declines slowed for the third straight month nationally. But before you break out the champagne and check books, get a dose of what the Wall Street Journal had to say yesterday: The bloodletting may not be over. Here’s…
There was some reason to take comfort about yesterday’s data from the Case-Shiller Index—the rate of price declines slowed for the third straight month nationally. But before you break out the champagne and check books, get a dose of what the Wall Street Journal had to say yesterday:
The bloodletting may not be over. Here’s why: If price declines accelerate for the mid-to-upper end of the housing market, then that could generate enough large declines in values—even among a small segment of the overall housing market—to push the index lower still.
Meanwhile, here in New York (where there’s plenty of “mid-to-upper” properties) housing prices ticked down another 1.6 percent in April for a total of 21 percent off the June 2008 high, as the chart above shows.
Well my fingers and toes are crossed for you with regard to closing. I’m sure it will go through without a hitch!
11217 – shhhh not yet! ha – we are at contract stage
omg of course we will stay in PS or maybe like WT(ish)
we plan to rent for a year and watch the market. We do like owning for obvious reasons so plan to jump in just not in over our heads this go around 🙂
Saw that one Dave…been saying it for a while now. Glad to see it wasn’t just one of my baseless rants. 🙂
It only makes sense that the U.S. catches up to some of the old civilizations and becomes more urbanized. It’s really the only way we can survive on this planet. If every single person had to have 3000 sf with a yard and 2 car garage in the burbs, we’d be in BIG trouble.
I’m very happy to see this trend reversing, and it sounds like it is expected to continue. I can’t tell you how many people I know are hearing stories about NYC being cheaper now and friends from out of state contemplating moving here. Now granted, we are talking about mostly younger, mostly single and occasionally gay (all a good recipe for a move to NYC) but there are also families and empty nesters on that list as well.
There was a story today that people left the state for FL and other places because of the real estate and now they are coming back.
U.S. ‘Migration Bubble’ Bursts, Benefiting New York, Chicago
July 1 (Bloomberg) — New York, Los Angeles and Chicago, the three biggest U.S. cities, saw an increase in population as falling housing prices slowed growth in the Florida and California suburbs that were leaders earlier in the decade, the U.S. Census Bureau said today.
“The housing bubble caused a migration bubble and it has burst,†said William Frey, a Brookings Institution demographer in Washington. “Big cities survived the housing meltdown better than most of the rest of the country.â€
The Census figures, covering the year through June 2008, show how the worst U.S. real-estate slump since the Great Depression, and the deepest recession in half a century, is changing the nation’s population trends. Among the worst hit are Florida’s cities: the state had three of the 10 fastest-growing urban centers five years ago, and none in the most recent year.
back40, that has no relevance. If you go back to 1989, we’ve been in a secular bull market up to 1999. Then there was a correction back to 1987 levels and then the market went up to peak at the same point as 1999 in 2007 and is now back.
The look and action of the stock market over 25, 50, 100 years is totally irrelevant. The cycles are a lot shorter and that’s how money is made and lost. Saying people are 300 months from another high in the market is really “lunatic fringe.”
Yeah I definetely don’t think people will leave the state/city because of higher taxes. I just think people will scale back their lifestyles which of course affects other business and therein lies the cycle….
So you sold, Gemini! That’s great! Congrats.
18% off ain’t too bad, and I’m glad to hear you still came out with a profit. You staying in the ‘hood?
Bridges:
There are so many factors you need to take into account though in all of this besides taxes. Politically the U.S. is becoming more and more polarized with each passing day. As more stories like Mark Sanford show up, and every time Sarah Palin or Rush Limbaugh or whoever shows up on CNN, the more the “heartland” of the U.S. distances itself from the handful of liberal enclaves on the East and West Coasts. Lots of people come to NYC to escape what is a very narrow-minded view of the world which is prevalent in a big part of this country.
I don’t think as many people as you think want to move to South Carolina because cigarettes are cheaper.
I get it from the chart, which shows for each secular bear market (within which there were rallies) the months until the S&P regained its peak. Average is about 300 months. As of March, we are 111 months out from the peak.