Case-Shiller: Recovery Waning, Double Dip Possible
Case-Shiller came out with the December numbers for its 20-city index of real estate prices and the results weren’t particularly good: 15 out of 20 cities showed month-over-month declines, though the overall index managed to eke out a seasonally-adjusted increase of 0.3 percent. The good news is that the index staged a 5 percent comeback…
Case-Shiller came out with the December numbers for its 20-city index of real estate prices and the results weren’t particularly good: 15 out of 20 cities showed month-over-month declines, though the overall index managed to eke out a seasonally-adjusted increase of 0.3 percent. The good news is that the index staged a 5 percent comeback starting in April 2009 after a six-month run that saw it lose 11 percent. The bad news is the number of markets with positive monthly returns has gradually decreased over that time from 18 in June to 4 in December. It also doesn’t bode particularly well that the Federal Government is expected stop its purchases of mortgage-backed securities in March, which in turn is likely to lead to a rise in mortgage rates; meanwhile, market pressure from a rising number of foreclosures is expected to keep downward pressure on prices. Seeking Alpha all that means the country’s in for a double dip. Here in New York City, prices fell about 1 percent month-over-month and a little more than 6 percent year-over-year, not as bad as Las Vegas or Miami, but far worse than some other cities like Boston or San Francisco where the downturn started much earlier.
U.S. Home Prices Rise Modestly [NY Times]
Case-Shiller Adds to Confusion on Housing Market [WSJ]
Graphic from Seeking Alpha
I’m more of a hyena looking for scraps.
the dream will never die…
I hear you Joe. We have a lovely rental that is not very pricey, so no need to rush. Also need to get kid #2 in good school – key for our thinking. Once she’s in, we have a lot more freedom to buy in other hoods…But in the meantime, “missing out” on a good price is the least of my concerns. Most prices still just feel too high, and I see comps slowly pushing down…
whether its 2004, 2002, 1998 prices, one will need to have a ton of cash available cause there’s a ton of us vulture buyers standing on the side-lines which means super high probability of all-cash offers, bidding wars, etc.
Joe – I’d be very happy with 2002 prices!
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Me too. Also not certain things will go back that far. All’s that I am certain of is that there is way too much MacroEconomic uncertainty out there for me to feel certain I should buy right now. I’m not uncertain about my happiness as a renter for the moment and up to a few years in the future.
Joe – I’d be very happy with 2002 prices! Again, not positive it will go back that far, but I would not rule out. For sure, I think significant additional price softening could be yet to come…
Joeingowanus you sound like Ben Bernanke who just keeps using the word “Unexpectedly ” in his speeches to Congress.
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EEEeeeeeew. NOoooooooooooooooooooooo!!!
Actually though, I really don’t. Just because I don’t expect 1998 prices, doesn’t mean I don’t expect 2002 prices.
No, MM, you were in the “hopeful” category. 🙂
C’mon DIBS, you know I’m not ignorant. Hopeful, yes. Bear that I am, I don’t see us returning to 98 prices (I’m hopeful, but not delusional) since that would be a major crash. 4-story 20′ brownstones in prime Park Slope were going for less than 1 million then. But I definitely think prices are not going up anytime soon, and that the chances are much greater that will continue to go down. The real question for me is: how much more will they go down? As a buyer, all this says to me: time is on my side. No need to rush and risk overpaying.