Case-Shiller: More Stable But Not Good
S&P/Case-Shiller released its November report on housing prices across the nation’s 20 biggest cities and the news wasn’t particularly good. There were some signs of stabilizing (and four cities have even seen price rises over the last year), but, as David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s, put it, “there…
S&P/Case-Shiller released its November report on housing prices across the nation’s 20 biggest cities and the news wasn’t particularly good. There were some signs of stabilizing (and four cities have even seen price rises over the last year), but, as David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s, put it, “there is no clear sign of a sustained, broad-based recovery.” New York appeared to have continued downward momentum, with prices off 1% from October and more than 7% from a year earlier; the 20-city index as a whole was down 5.3% over the year. U.S. News & World Report estimates that overall prices have another 5 to 10% left to fall. “We see a big backlog of distressed properties that could come on the market in the next several quarters,” Celia Chen of Moody’s Economy.com told the publication. The Case-Shiller report comes on the heels of a larger-than-expected drop in existing home sales.
A Look at Case-Shiller, by Metro Area [WSJ]
Home Prices Stabilize Further [U.S. News]
Tough Times for Housing Market Followers [Seeking Alpha]
Here’s the chart, DCB.
http://imgur.com/ntYmQ
Move on.
The New York number (173.24) is not based on statistics from Manhattan and Brooklyn. The Case Shiller Index is helpful if you want to understand the trend in Westchester or Nassau county. My guess is that Brooklyn price has more room to drop than what Case Shiller suggests.
I just covered the the 1.50 to 1.4 move (actually 1.49 to 1.415, yesterday). To me is less about the EUR and more about the USD. As soon as Fed hints at raising rates, USD is headed much higher.
How will this ‘stabilizing’ RE market hold up once rising interest rate become a reality?
You never admit when you are wrong, DIBS. I have not made any predictions about the future, because I am waiting to see the market stabilize, even though I COULD buy a home all cash, and not really care if home prices went down another 10% or 15%. (I am not talking about Bed Stuy either). I think housing is still high in Brooklyn. I don’t feel like dropping 2M in a well without a bottom. I do think we are nearing an inflection point and I am taking a wait and see attitude with my own money.
Prediction: the current correction in the stock market is not major. I am long financials, Energy, Pharmaceuticals and Biotech. Also have positions in high yield, but that is nervous money. I also took a flier on the Japanese and Mexican stock markets. If I am wrong, I will lose my own money.
I personally hope the housing sell off is going to bottom soon, because that would be good for the country and I am sick of renting. When it happens for real and not in your hope driven imagination I’ll be the first to cheer.
By the way, plotted the data. That is NOT a pretty chart.
“The Euro is all a call on Greece & Spain. The move from 1.50 to 1.40 in such a short period of time is also unprecedented. But since it now hinges on greece & Spain, it’s a very risky bet and one that we’ve stepped away from
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 27, 2010 11:26 AM”
My bet is euro goes below 1.2 – not so much dollar strength as euro weakness. We’ll see if I’m right by the end of the year.
Still buying japan here. The orderliness and “western style” bankruptcy of JAL was a really good thing. Japan is very, very cheap.
Steve…we shorted the yen and then covered it. i want to short the Yen (YCS) again soon as it becomes clear that the dollar may strengthen. Obama has not been good for that lately. if the rhetoric is toned down in the speach tonigh, the dollar will strengthen but THAT’S NOT A BET I’m willing to make ahead of Obama’s speech.
If Yen breaks 88 it goes to 86 and maybe then you short it.
It’s too tough to call right now because politics are involved.
The Euro is all a call on Greece & Spain. The move from 1.50 to 1.40 in such a short period of time is also unprecedented. But since it now hinges on greece & Spain, it’s a very risky bet and one that we’ve stepped away from
Dave, you buying $$s yet? Equities are done.
And no where did I ever say prices would not decline. You have me confused with someone else.